Rattibha

Michael Kao

19 Tweets Jan 26, 2023

Musings of the Day, 10/3/22:
Different day, same exact thought.
OIL is the key to everything, and with OPEC+ seemingly ready to defend here (seems premature), it's "every man for himself" in CB land. I do NOT see a Fed Pivot anytime soon.

With markets drunk on “Bad Is Good”/Fed Pivot Hopium once again, here is a reminder of the setup, imho:

That all said, given how oversold the markets are, I’m taking chips off the table and looking for better entry points to fade this Risk On.
Pelican going back to chilling.

Thought experiment:
Let's say BOJ bought up 100% of outstanding JGBs and then just CANCELLED all the debt.
What happens to JPY?
What happens to Nikkei?

FUGLY = $TSLA -8% on a +2.5% day. Tells you just how overvalued certain segments of the market are.

Seems like being short $TSLA might be the better way to play the $TWTR Risk Arb.

Paying homage to HOTD:
"It's all fun and games until someone loses [to] I(nflation)."

I rest my case. 👆

Reminder about today's spaces with @kofinas and @SantiagoAuFund re: USD Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man.

"He might look a little soft, but he will FUCK YOU UP."

Credit where credit is due: @kofinas on this!

Came in to today positioned for a crash but got an UPCRASH instead. Managed to eke out a small net positive on the day despite this, but this is just another reminder how treacherous this tape is for both sides.

It's a Milkshake...It's a Wrecking Ball...It's the USD Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man!

Judging by the BOJ’s complete FAIL at defending JPY while defending JGBs, I think the BOE will similarly FAIL at trying to stymie the GBP’s fall while defending gilts. I foresee a revisit to the lows — AT LEAST.

In fact, can anyone explain to me why GBP even bounced on this gilt intervention especially after BOE showed their hand on the fragility of their pension system? Was it because he asked nicely?

USD Wrecking Gandalf to the GBP Balrog:
“YOU SHALL NOT PASS!”
@agnostoxxx