2030 GDP
Consensus: $130 trillion
Hyper-exponential forecast: $170 trillion
Seems a lot
But
Our economic expectations for just robotaxi and AI-driven knowledge work software suggest $210 trillion
Consensus: $130 trillion
Hyper-exponential forecast: $170 trillion
Seems a lot
But
Our economic expectations for just robotaxi and AI-driven knowledge work software suggest $210 trillion
On Robotaxi:
Dramatically compelling cost per mile pricing
should undercut even the marginal cash-cost of operating a fully paid off vehicle
expanding the size of the ride-hail market to $10+ trillion
leading to $26 trillion in additional global economic production by 2030
Dramatically compelling cost per mile pricing
should undercut even the marginal cash-cost of operating a fully paid off vehicle
expanding the size of the ride-hail market to $10+ trillion
leading to $26 trillion in additional global economic production by 2030
On AI:
Prospective AI training costs falling 60% annually should lead to dramatic knowledge worker productivity advances.
A 2.4x knowledge worker productivity boost should lead to $56 trillion in additional 2030 output.
Prospective AI training costs falling 60% annually should lead to dramatic knowledge worker productivity advances.
A 2.4x knowledge worker productivity boost should lead to $56 trillion in additional 2030 output.
And an acceleration in AI accelerates—well—everything
All of which suggests that the green (convergence) trajectory is the more likely economic future than the grey (consensus)
And the difference is profound
Average 2030 income ~30% higher than people expect, a doubling of real GDP in a decade, growth escalation vs growth decay…
And the difference is profound
Average 2030 income ~30% higher than people expect, a doubling of real GDP in a decade, growth escalation vs growth decay…
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