Musings of the Day, 10/6/22:
Tails just got a lot fatter.
OIL is what STARTED the Inflation Conflagration.
OIL just got weaponized.
Tails just got a lot fatter.
OIL is what STARTED the Inflation Conflagration.
OIL just got weaponized.
OIL is also what gave birth to the USD Wrecking Ball, and I have a strong hunch we have NOT seen ATH yet for DXY.
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Watch the Long Bond. Looks like it's about to make another run at the MOATL.
Interesting.
Join us in a couple minutes. We're gonna talk about TROUBLE.
Ok now itโs finally starting.
FEDโS EVANS: AT THE END OF THE DAY EVERY CENTRAL BANK HAS TO MAKE ITS OWN DECISIONS.๐
Fed Pivot? ๐ซข
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What happens if OPEC+โs move causes dot plots to move to 5%+? Itโs not out of the realm.
120 DXY? Itโs not out of the realm.
120 DXY? Itโs not out of the realm.
Yeah, 3rd Inning still sounds about right to me, especially given the starting point.
H/t @charliebilello for the chart. Yellow highlights mine.
H/t @charliebilello for the chart. Yellow highlights mine.
โBut I just donโt believe them.โ
Fed Pivot Hopium smokers will have no one to blame but themselves. Fed messaging has shown unusual solidarity on this front.
Fed Pivot Hopium smokers will have no one to blame but themselves. Fed messaging has shown unusual solidarity on this front.
Markets donโt fully appreciate how important OPEC+ decision was yesterday.
Itโs going to be CLASH OF THE TITANS: OPEC+ vs. Fed.
Itโs going to be CLASH OF THE TITANS: OPEC+ vs. Fed.
Regarding the USD Wrecking Ball: for macro conditions to get so bad that the Fed PAUSES, RoWโs CBโs will likely be EASING by then.
I would NOT be surprised to see DXY > 120.
I would NOT be surprised to see DXY > 120.
I find all of this emphatic jawboning curious ahead of the NFP tomorrow. Itโs almost as if theyโre telling markets:
DO NOT CONFLATE SLOWING GROWTH INDICATORS WITH A SLOWDOWN IN INFLATION. ๐ค
DO NOT CONFLATE SLOWING GROWTH INDICATORS WITH A SLOWDOWN IN INFLATION. ๐ค
โIโm sure this is just a trial balloon and that they donโt really mean it.โ๐
FED PIVOT -> FED DIVOT (HOLE)
FED PIVOT -> FED DIVOT (HOLE)
Unusually emphatic with far less hedging language than before.
Boom.
Debating whether or not to watch this despite the favorable reviews. As a pre-Disney SW fanboy, Iโve generally observed a negative correlation between mass appeal and fanboy appeal of Disneyโs SW content.
๐
From Bridgewater 10/11/22 piece. Yeah, 3rd Inning still sounds about right.
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