Haven't commented on crypto or BTC in awhile so thought I'd make a few comparisons as this is a market I've been trading/invested in now since 2015...its still an avoid from a trading standpoint imo for obvious reasons as everything is in steep downtrends...
Looking at the 2018 route we basically found support around 5K and bounced off it all year and formed a massive descending triangle or ledge as I'd call it that finally broke when the general market went risk off late in the year...
Fast forward to 2022 and looks similar where 19-20K (the old highs from 2017 peak) has been a similar area of support although the bounces to date not as convincing however based upon the work of a number of folks a lot smarter than myself @WClementeIII @woonomic @TuurDemeester.
there seems to be good evidence that there are a lot of whales and large buyers accumulating according to the onchain data it would suggest that the weak hands have all been rinsed. This would suggest to me that we get a repeat of 2018 (going lower)...
only if we see more forced selling of all risk assets. Based upon a number of people I've spoken to it does seem this cycle that institutions really are accumulating this go round and even more so are increasing their access/capacity to be fully onboarded...
To me what is most anecdotally interesting is the number of questions I have gotten about it. Near the end of 2017 when BTC was screaming I had lots of people asking me about it, what is it, how to buy, should I buy, and a year later heard crickets...
Early last year it was the same thing only louder, TONS of people asking me questions when BTC hit a trillion market cap (which ironically was when I was lightening up although not enough) and ETH and lots of alt coins moonshotting and now I'm hearing crickets again...
I remain a long term bull however I think the market probably needs a catalyst at the moment. Could come with more regulatory clarity or the USD finally cooling off or any number of other things but for now I'm more of a spectator than a player. I am starting to screen...
the top 100 coins to see if there is anything showing real relative strength as that was a great tell towards the end of the last cycle and I'd say it's still too early and many of these alts just like the last cycle will never return to those prices and go the way of the dodo
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