@powerfultakes thinks that Russia should deliberately cause Kessler Syndrome in order to reduce the US advantage in space
My take: destroying satellites could destabilize mutually assured destruction if it worked.
But it wouldn't actually work IMO:
My take: destroying satellites could destabilize mutually assured destruction if it worked.
But it wouldn't actually work IMO:
Firstly, Kessler Syndrome happens slowly. Even if you kickstart it with a lot of debris, I think it takes years for all those collisions to play out.
Secondly, Kessler Syndrome would still allow satellites in MEO (Medium Earth Orbit). They would be less useful due to the height.
Secondly, Kessler Syndrome would still allow satellites in MEO (Medium Earth Orbit). They would be less useful due to the height.
But it would also allow ion-assisted satellites in very low orbit. GOCE orbits at 155 miles, which I believe is low enough that debris would not be found at that altitude. GOCE can only exist up there due to its ion engine and streamlined shape.
Plus, the US has a number of other platforms in development like airships that would operate 20-30 km up. 30km corresponds to a 600km horizon. The Global Hawk has a 500km horizon.
A combination of atmospheric platforms and MEO sats would probably be good enough.
A combination of atmospheric platforms and MEO sats would probably be good enough.
The big risk with "close the sky" is that it would take out existing spy satellites that are used to monitor nuclear launches. If this happened WITHOUT warning, it would risk setting off a nuclear war.
With warning might be safer, but it would really piss a lot of people off.
With warning might be safer, but it would really piss a lot of people off.
I do not believe that this is a strategically sound option for Russia, specifically because it would impose externalities on India and China (and many other countries), further isolating Russia internationally.
US intel assets are diverse enough that Kessler syndrome would not defeat them.
e.g. 500km ranges from international waters cover most of the southern front in Ukraine. 500km is the horizon for platforms at a 20km altitude like the Global Hawk.
Airships can get higher though this is experimental.
Airships can get higher though this is experimental.
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