Technology Trade Economics Politics
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker

@GavinSBaker

9 tweets 4 reads Mar 27, 2023
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1) The new US export controls on semiconductors feel like the plot of the “Three Body Problem” unfolding in the real world.
The export controls will function like Sophons given supercomputers are essential for some basic scientific research in addition to military applications
2) Individual company impact of the export controls for China HPC:
China has 173 supercomputers in the top500 list.
172 use either Xeon or Chinese developed CPUs. Tesla GPUs (generally v100) and Infiniband are the second most common components.
1 of the 173 uses EPYC CPUs.
3) Actual top500 list for anyone curious. I was quite surprised that EPYC share was so low.
top500.org
www.top500.org

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4) Good article on the broader impact beyond HPC vendors. There are no work arounds in the next 5-10 years. It is simply not possible to design and manufacture leading edge semiconductors without US software (EDA) and US semicap equipment.
ft.com
www.ft.com

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5) i.e. The Chinese developed CPUs in some of their newer Supercomputers were definitively designed with US EDA software and then manufactured using US semiconductor capital equipment (whether locally or in Taiwan). This will not be possible in 1-2 years.
6) I think likely medium-term impact, beyond China retaliating against prominent American tech companies with large businesses in China, is that China relaxes restrictions on their companies using cloud computing services from American hyperscalers.
7) For better or worse, this is the *only* way I can see for China to be able to continue using cutting edge HPC over time for the basic scientific research where HPC is essential. Potentially ok with American gov as the workloads can be monitored. Oracle/TikTokseque.
8) We will see if China can come up with a “Dark Forest” like response that durably changes this new American policy.
Regardless, this is a very aggressive new policy with significant implications.
9) And btw, I don’t think America = the Trisolarans. We have not sent an invasion fleet, etc. etc.

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