11 Tweets 7 reads Oct 14, 2022
Kryvyi Rih front was converted into Beryslav front by πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ forces.
After a two day rush and 1200km2 liberated, while the front has reached its intermittent balance.
The Inhulets foothold distract πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί from the east and now its tern to amaze the public.
Let’s take a look at the settlement shovel on the Beryslav direction.
Settlement distribution in the area is quite a unique - along the rivers and in the middle with almost no settlements in between. That makes a 15km wide gap of no man fields that could used by advancing forces.
After the initial rush along the Dnipro πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ forces were stoped by exploded bridges. πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί has managed to regroup and bring some artillery to an opposite bank.
Artillery along the left bank creates a safe zone for the πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί troops, everything beyond has no chances for survive.
1. Inhulets "foothold" - connected to mainland after the liberation of Davydiv Brid by T2207.
2. Beryslav front. With liberation of Piatykhatky, detour to Mylove is open in part with road from Nova Kamianka the area between those roads needs to be abandoned by πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί or their troops might be pushed into the Dnipro.
3. The Spot - the are within the void near Vitrove where buffed artillery can reach all the crossings. Allows to control most of the area, cutting the front, closing Snihurivka.
Liberation of Kalynivske would indicate that Tamaryne assault has started.
4. Mylove bite, the area connected to Piatyhatky by road with additional support might be taken by πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ forces or abandoned by πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί after destroying the bridges on T0403 over bay in Novokairy.
Overall the front is stable and artillery from both sides should cancel out each other.
5. Settlement brick - the shaft that πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί will hold as long as possible. Provides a protection and storage capacities. Settlements are dense enough to guarantee stable reinforcement. The downside is lack of fast connection outside T2207, that allows to cuts the area by half.
6. Novoraisk - Lymanets frontier - fully under cover by the artillery with all the settlements along the pavement roads, provides support to Borozenske protecting supply routes.
7. Fallback line that sticks closer to the dam and focuses on Beryslav defense.
Both defense plans can be collapsed by advance over the Chaikyne into the 15x30 fields area that is controlled by πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί artillery but absolutely safe without proper reconnaissance.
That would shrink πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί presence on the right bank to nonexistent bridgeheads.
P.S.
It's not a plan, just an interpretation of what we see. Any offense relies heavily on the timing and the resources. The front can be static for a months and shatter within hours or not even happen, as it was with πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί encirclement of the Donbas.

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