Comparisons between the Russia-Ukraine war and the Cuban Missile Crisis are fatally flawed and should not be made
Some commentary in the U.S. brings up that flawed comparison.
Its main effect is to distort U.S. perceptions of what is, in fact, a WW2 style war of conquest.
1-21
Some commentary in the U.S. brings up that flawed comparison.
Its main effect is to distort U.S. perceptions of what is, in fact, a WW2 style war of conquest.
1-21
You'd have to imagine the US were halfway through invading Cuba. Then and only then, the Soviets gave weapons to Cuba (but not nukes). Then Kennedy threatened to nuke Cuba, and maybe the US, insisting he keeps part of Cuba, and babbling about Cuba not being a real nation.
2-21
2-21
Russia is in the process of carrying out a war of aggression against Ukraine, including annexation of territory and actions against the Ukrainian people which constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity.
3-21
3-21
The stakes for the international order are much higher in the Russia-Ukraine war than in the Cuba Missile Crisis.
People who are not familiar with how states think tend to underestimate how important our governments consider territorial integrity and nuclear threats to be.
4-21
People who are not familiar with how states think tend to underestimate how important our governments consider territorial integrity and nuclear threats to be.
4-21
Allowing a major power to change borders by force, and allowing a major power to impose its will through the threat or use of nuclear weapons, are two massively unacceptable propositions for all of our governments.
5-21
5-21
The real conversation is about getting Putin to exit its war of choice in Ukraine, which is a greedy imperial obsession on his part, and not at all "existential", that line being most likely a planted narrative, or perhaps just an elementary misreading of human psychology.
6-21
6-21
Putin knows he will not be invaded or nuked on his home soil. He is certain of that. We told him. He can measure it, observe it, ask his spies. Everything he knows indicates we fear him. Hence the war! He would not have attacked Ukraine if he had feared attack from us.
7-21
7-21
It is important to understand the situation is NOT existential for Putin.
It is equally important to understand that the entire "Cuba comparison bubble" - a notable part being Carnegie, to their discredit - rests on believing that this is "existential" for Putin.
8-21
It is equally important to understand that the entire "Cuba comparison bubble" - a notable part being Carnegie, to their discredit - rests on believing that this is "existential" for Putin.
8-21
But it is not existential. The West does not threaten Russia or his regime as a first move, clearly and deliberately so, to manage escalation. The exit for Putin is there - stop the war, stop attacking!
Is it existential to have to stop attacking a neighbour?
Ridiculous.
9-21
Is it existential to have to stop attacking a neighbour?
Ridiculous.
9-21
I am absolutely adamant that the current war is not "existential" for Putin, and that that line is at best a deep lack of logic, and at worst an inappropriate repetition of a planted narrative - in other words, disinformation.
10-21
10-21
The real conflict and the real stakes are as follows.
Any net gain Putin makes in Ukraine will be rewarding war of aggression, direct conquest, and the use of nuclear threats in order to cow others into submission.
Those are the two things our governments can never accept.
11-21
Any net gain Putin makes in Ukraine will be rewarding war of aggression, direct conquest, and the use of nuclear threats in order to cow others into submission.
Those are the two things our governments can never accept.
11-21
These two quadruple red lines are distinct from empathy or direct sympathy towards Ukraine, which is an additional motivation especially for nations that are close to Ukraine, in Central & Eastern Europe.
12-21
12-21
For *all* Western states, it is well understood that if Russia gets away with aggression, we enter a world of the highest danger. And not only in Europe. This is why, from Taiwan to Australia and Japan, America's friends and Allies in the Pacific, too, support Ukraine.
13-21
13-21
I believe our governments understand the following.
Putin must lose. Whatever the outcome, it must be a net negative to him. Strategically, for the future, in game theoretic terms, in terms of incentives, the entire war must be a clear net negative.
14-21
Putin must lose. Whatever the outcome, it must be a net negative to him. Strategically, for the future, in game theoretic terms, in terms of incentives, the entire war must be a clear net negative.
14-21
In parallel with this cost-benefit consideration, our governments really, really, really think a lot in terms of International Law.
People who've not been in government very often underestimate this. Sovereignty, borders, territorial integrity - they MATTER.
15-21
People who've not been in government very often underestimate this. Sovereignty, borders, territorial integrity - they MATTER.
15-21
Core principles of International Law and of the UN Charter are repeated not just by some legal experts from our Ministries. Our Heads of State and Government refer to them. Our NATO Summit Declarations refer to them. It matters. A lot.
16-21
16-21
Our governments have a very significant stake in making Moscow comply with International Law. This, they naturally want to achieve without getting their heads blown off, and so there won't be a 1945 type solution where we march on Moscow.
17-21
17-21
But through pressures, deterrence signals, aid to Ukraine, sanctions, our governments are pushing pretty damn hard. And they do it because respecting international borders is very, very important.
18-21
18-21
And just as important is making absolutely sure that BOTH the use AND the threat of using nuclear weapons is a very, very costly and unattractive proposition.
That is why our governments will NOT bend the knee because of Putin threatening the use of a nuclear weapon.
19-21
That is why our governments will NOT bend the knee because of Putin threatening the use of a nuclear weapon.
19-21
What has happened instead is that our governments have started to signal to Mr. Putin and to Russia as a whole - some semi-formal messaging is public, like the recent statement by Mr. Borrell - that any use of nukes will be punished with massive conventional strikes.
20-21
20-21
And that is where our nations and governments need to be. Not being cowed, blackmailed, and sold a fake comparison with Cuba - but clear-eyed about our red lines, and clear that Putin will NOT get away with his obviously criminal war that he can elect to exit at any time.
21-21
21-21
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