read a piece by Petr Pavel, former NATO’s Military Committee chair, Czech Army chief of staff:
Russian revanchism runs deeper than Putin. The West should be extremely cautious about welcoming Russians now trying to flee Putin’s mobilization order — they pose a security risk.
🧵
Russian revanchism runs deeper than Putin. The West should be extremely cautious about welcoming Russians now trying to flee Putin’s mobilization order — they pose a security risk.
🧵
Worth mentioning Mr. Pavel is now a leading candidate in the Czech Republic’s presidential election in 2024.
Interview is in @POLITICOEurope:
politico.eu
Interview is in @POLITICOEurope:
politico.eu
Pavel doesn't go so far as yours truly, who calls this draft evasion a major russian spies infiltration program, but he clearly calls a spade a spade:
“Opposition to mobilization is not a revolt against the regime, or any kind of support for Ukraine...
“Opposition to mobilization is not a revolt against the regime, or any kind of support for Ukraine...
These Russians still believe in punishing Ukraine, just not involving the general public.
“The young men are worried about their own lives — that doesn’t mean they’re against the war. I’m sure that many of them will continue to support Putin’s nationalist policies,”
“The young men are worried about their own lives — that doesn’t mean they’re against the war. I’m sure that many of them will continue to support Putin’s nationalist policies,”
“I would definitely not agree that everyone fleeing Russia is our friend.”
pretty accurate, imo.
pretty accurate, imo.
“Can you imagine country like Czech Rep, which already has a strong Russian ‘fifth column,’ accepting another 40 or 50,000 Russians? Men who wouldn’t be grateful to democratic country, who would stay within their nationalist views? This would be a risk to our internal security.”
"I think Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic are clear examples of Russia’s hybrid warfare succeeding, making the population disbelieve all the pillars of power — including politicians and the media." - Pavel
“But we in the West are also partly responsible by being unable to admit that we make mistakes. Just look at Libya. We stuck to the assessment that Libya was a strategic success — but we didn’t have any political solution, and in the end, we caused more problems than solved...
All the Russians had to do was say: ‘This is what strategic success looks like to the West. Do you want this?’”
Peter Pavel self-criticism of the Western approaches is refreshing indeed:
"We’re so afraid to admit weakness that we create a lot of space for hostile propaganda"
Peter Pavel self-criticism of the Western approaches is refreshing indeed:
"We’re so afraid to admit weakness that we create a lot of space for hostile propaganda"
next goes something why we, Ukrainians, love Czechia so much: he understands that “There will be no democratic revolution in Russia for the foreseeable future. Not just because of the regime’s strong position, but also because of the mentality of many Russians.”
“No room for a true opposition movement to grow. Even @navalny isn’t really a proper oppo leader. He’s definitely not a liberal democrat, he’s another kind of Russian nationalist, although he would, of course, be a better negotiating counterpart than the current leadership.” 👏👏
tell me: how many Westerners understand that so clearly?
how many?
revanchism and resentment over the lost superpower status are driving most of the electorate in russia and Navalny (if not the imperialist himself) just has no room for the manoeuvre.
how many?
revanchism and resentment over the lost superpower status are driving most of the electorate in russia and Navalny (if not the imperialist himself) just has no room for the manoeuvre.
"Russia didn’t see value in partnership bcs they don’t believe in ‘win-win’. In their thinking, you either win or lose. Russian saying: ‘If I’m a General, you’re stupid; if you’re a General, I’m stupid.’ There’s no understanding that both sides can get sth out of a situ."
true!
true!
Pavel admits NATO underestimated Putin’s willingness to use brute force to achieve its stated goals — sth the West can no longer have any illusions abt.
“Russians are often straightforward. When Putin was talking abt Russian world, we didn’t take him seriously. But he meant it.”
“Russians are often straightforward. When Putin was talking abt Russian world, we didn’t take him seriously. But he meant it.”
Yes, the West has been warned repeatedly starting from April-2021 by many ppl (yours truly included), but they were sleepwalking into oblivion...
Admitting mistakes is the first step to making the situation better. Peter Pavel does admit mistakes were made. Refreshing. Really.
Admitting mistakes is the first step to making the situation better. Peter Pavel does admit mistakes were made. Refreshing. Really.
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