Intrinsic Compounding
Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

9 Tweets 4 reads Jan 07, 2023
Not so long back in 2013-2014. Post a good cycle in both BOPP & BOPET most of the packaging films players ended up expanding capacities. There was a glut of supply over-flooding the markets.
2022-23 can be a similar scenario, Markets are smart. Stage 4 in many of them already
Blow up starts for the sector, a small cap in the space reports 8% Margin vs 20% in the heydays of the upcycle
Some cycles are like-- stable demand and stable supply
Then abnormal supply comes on stream in short span with demand remaining the same
SRF Packaging Margins :-
P.s
I will try to update as many threads as possible that I have shared. These are case studies for you to learnπŸ™
Only open mindedness can help..
Segmental EBIT Margins in Packaging business turns negative for Jindal Poly
COSMO reports de-growth too, citing number of lines coming up in India.. Extent of de-growth being lesser than other players though. Yet, commodity part remains commodity
Pre-empt the cycles..
Read from end to end everyone
Disc: Not a reco to buy or sell
And the cycle gets worse..
Check the margins and read the thread end to end..
This is how cyclicals should be studied.
Disc: no reco to buy or sell. Don't own, please only use this as study material to learn cyclical investing.
Another one:- COSMO Films. Some claim they have a higher speciality mix..
Check the OPM's. Read the thread from end to end, good case study for cyclical investing.
Excess supply-stage 4- bad results. That's been the pattern.
Disc: not invested. Only study material for you.

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