Seeing as the Bring Back Boris Barmy Army is now on the march, time for a little public service thread on Johnson's electoral appeal in 2019 and popularity since. Tl;dr - he wasn't popular then, and he *certainly* isn't now 1/?
Boris Johnson was *not* popular in 2019. He was less popular at every point of the campaign than Theresa May was in the 2017 campaign (see graph). He had the good fortune to run with two strong fair winds - a toxic opponent (Corbyn) and a winning issue (Brexit). Both gone now.
Boris Johnson was also *not popular at all* for most of the last year of his premiership. His lowest ebb was a net rating of -46 with MORI, the 6th worst ever & only 5 points better than Truss's worst rating. This period ended all of three months ago!
Boris backers imagine that Johnson can turn this around. But you can't unburn toast. Here are Johnson's final ratings with YouGov on different characteristics:
Competence: -43
Trustworthiness: -65
Decisiveness: -35
Strength: -24
Likeability: -13
Competence: -43
Trustworthiness: -65
Decisiveness: -35
Strength: -24
Likeability: -13
Here is a word cloud of descriptions of Boris Johnson from @jamesjohnson252 polling in April 2022 - just 6 months ago. People imagining these impressions have somehow disappeared or been reversed are deluding themselves.
OK, so that's the polling, how about his performance in actual elections. He's a proven winner, right? Erm...
There were 5 contested by-elex after"partygate" scandals. Averaging Con fall across all 5 was -17.3%
Average Con fall across 3 Con-Lab or Lab-Con contests was -11.2%
There were 5 contested by-elex after"partygate" scandals. Averaging Con fall across all 5 was -17.3%
Average Con fall across 3 Con-Lab or Lab-Con contests was -11.2%
The 2022 local elections saw a massive swing against Cons towards whoever was best placed to unset them locally. Cons collapsed in London and they collapsed in their Southern heartlands theguardian.com
OK, so Johnson isn't popular and he is no longer an electoral asset (if he ever was). But can he deliver the unity and good governance his party and country crave? The evidence on that front is not encouraging either.
The Johnson government was characterised from start to finish by chaos, scandal, self-inflicted blunders, and screeching U-turns repeatedly humiliating ministers who defended unpopular lines only to see them abandoned hours later. Again, this all happened only a few months ago.
A few examples of Johnson U-turns here: theguardian.com
As for scandals, where to start? Partygate, Pincher, Paterson, Barnard Castle, Lebedev and much, much more. He is still under investigation by the Commons Privileges Committee, who could yet recommend suspending him from the house *next month*.
Johnson supporters may have forgotten all this, but voters and more critical MPs have not. Much of it happened this year, after all. We are already seeing MPs pledge to resign the whip and/or trigger by-elex rather than serve under a Johnson Lazarus administration
So the idea of Bring Back Boris has only a few small flaws: He isn't popular. He never was. He can't govern. He can't unify. Scandal & chaos follows him wherever he goes. And enough Con MPs know all of this to leave him unable to govern from day 1.
Great column today by @stephenkb on why, despite all of this, Johnson may well make the ballot on Monday (and may well win a vote with members). If he does, I suspect buyer's regret won't be long in coming (nor will internal opposition):
ft.com
ft.com
Those interested in separating fact from myth regarding Johnson, Corbyn, and everything else related to the 2019 election may want to check out this book with @ProfTimBale @drjennings and @p_surridge amazon.co.uk
@ProfTimBale @drjennings @p_surridge Meanwhile some polling on Johnson's current popularity with voters at large - he would lose to either of his most likely rivals in next week's contest. I suspect he would lose to the Daily Star lettuce as well:
@ProfTimBale @drjennings @p_surridge A focus group of 2019 Con voters from five months ago. Are we supposed to believe they have all forgiven and forgotten?
@ProfTimBale @drjennings @p_surridge Already evidence arriving to confirm that voters have indeed neither forgiven nor forgotten:
If you have read this far, then I urge you to read this eloquent @PaulGoodmanCH piece, which makes the Conservative case against Johnson with clarity, verve and an acute understanding of the Boris Temptation conservativehome.com
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