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A 🧵about RU logistics in the Kherson region and why Ukraine needs ATACMS.
In this thread I will talk about how HIMARS affected the Russian logistics, how Russia have managed to recover from the initial HIMARS effects and why Ukraine need long range capabilities like ATACMS.
In this thread I will talk about how HIMARS affected the Russian logistics, how Russia have managed to recover from the initial HIMARS effects and why Ukraine need long range capabilities like ATACMS.
This is a follow-up on @NLwartracker previous post about Myrne.
When Ukraine received the first HIMARS/GMLRS and as a result of shellings on the bridges in Kherson region, RuAF were forced to move their logistics further back from the frontline. They started off in Brylivka as it was close to two major roads.
On July 29th, the Russians were shown why setting up within GMLRS range was a bad idea.
The events in Brylivka forced RUAF to move their logistics even further back. To Myrne.
I will now show some high resolution satellite images from Myrne, they are all from October 11th.
On this image you can see 15 trucks in the process of offloading the train, loading in/out of warehouses and waiting for their turn at the Myrne Railway station.
This is another compound in Myrne, the same thing is going on here, the are loading/offloading trucks and trying to hide while waiting for their turn.
If we zoom on to that picture we can even see the guys working there, it looks like they have taken their shirts off.
This is a third location in Myrne where RuAF are loading/offloading trucks at. At this location we seem to have 16 trucks possibly waiting to load/offload in the compound we can see the edge of at the bottom of the picture (see next tweet).
This is the compound I mentioned in the previous tweet. We can trucks backed up to 3 different entrances. In earlier images we have also seen trucks backed up to the building at the bottom left of the picture.
Notice the piles of ammo boxes left out in the open.
Notice the piles of ammo boxes left out in the open.
So how far away from the frontline is this located?
Myrne is located about 100km from where Ukraine could fire with some risk close to the frontline, or 120km from a safe location.
Myrne is located about 100km from where Ukraine could fire with some risk close to the frontline, or 120km from a safe location.
The distance 120km happens to be the range of the Tochka-U, I do not believe Ukraine does not have any of those left, I think they fired their last batch when they received HIMARS.
Some people talk about HIMARS being able to shoot beyond the 84km specified by the Germans, beyond 100km. I believe the US has either locked the systems they have shipped to ukraine to 84km or they have forbidden use beyond that range.
There are just too many targets in the 100km range that would be hit if ukraine had capabilities to shoot beyond 84km. This is why I'm convinced Ukraine does not have ATACMS or any other longer range capabilities than what they reach with the M31s.
Myrne is a prime example of why Ukraine need more options to strike deep in to Russian controlled territory. But there are possibly hundreds of locations that could be hit if Ukraine just could.
Another issue is the block to only use HIMARS on Ukrainian territory. These 3 locations are Russian staging areas just on the Russian border. These are places where they can just do their thing without being threatened.
These are just a few from a long list of potential targets very close to the Ukrainian border. They are typically about 30km in to Russian territory. They could technically be reached with Excalibur at some places, but moving that close to the border would be extremely risky.
All the arguments above is the reason I believe Ukraine needs ATACMS now, and they need to be allowed to strike inside Russia.
If you are from the US, make sure to let your representative know about UA needs:
house.gov
If you are from the US, make sure to let your representative know about UA needs:
house.gov
These images were bought as part of a cooperation between @DefMon3 , @COUPSURE, @ArtisanalAPT, @NLwartracker
Satellite images are expensive.
If you would like to see more images like these, please consider donating to one of us:
Ko-fi.com
buymeacoffee.com
ko-fi.com
paypal.me
If you would like to see more images like these, please consider donating to one of us:
Ko-fi.com
buymeacoffee.com
ko-fi.com
paypal.me
Some people are asking about using M31s beyond 84km, and the precision loss. Yes they loose precision, iirc M31 has a CEP of 4m, lets say that increases to 10m if they shoot at 100m range. They would still hit those warehouses or camps. They would fire more than one rocket.
Another issue is the angle it approaches the target with, if they shoot at longer distances, the angle decreases and Russian Air Defense would have an easier time hitting them.
None of those things would be a problem a real problem.
While we are waiting for ATACMS, follow accounts like these below. They are all people who do a lot to provide Ukraine with needed equipment.
@Teoyaomiquu
@BlagulaBilen
@SomeGumul
@secretsqrl123
@Exen
@SignMyRocket
@Teoyaomiquu
@BlagulaBilen
@SomeGumul
@secretsqrl123
@Exen
@SignMyRocket
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