1.MUHURAT PICKS:Concentrating almost entirely on Macros.MOST LIKELY scenario which may play out till next Muhurat. No Guarantees, but High Probability based on my perception after rigorous study. RISKS : Black Swan Events;Nuclear War;China & Local Political uncertainty
2.Ukraine Conflict: Should get over or simmer down considerably. Unlikely to be a threat to Global Peace since Russia & US are already talking at the highest level. German Chancellor also meeting Xi to broker peace. english.alarabiya.net eurasiantimes.com
3.Commodities Peak: Commodity Complex has collapsed into a Bear Market. Oil too is struggling to cross $100. This should be "Peak Price" going into next year.
4.Inflation : High Frequency Indicators suggest clearly that Inflation has peaked & the path of least resistance is DOWN. It is expected to gradually decline for next 3 months & then a dramatic decline thereafter.#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">bloomberg.com
5.Action of Central Bankers:CBs have already panicked led by BOE then BOJ & now FED. While November 75 & Dec. 50 Basis point hikes are baked in thereafter to expect FED to raise rates in a Deflationary Environment will be a challenge even to the Hawks. Pause will happen in 2023
6. Rupee & Inflation: Peak Rupee weakness has almost certainly happened. While 85 is the most pessimistic assumption. 80 is a reasonable & highly probable. Similarly Peak Inflation is history.
7.Corporate Growth: The worst is clearly behind based on the widespread improvement in Corporate Results. 2022-25 will be as memorable as the 2004-2007 period, maybe more actually.
8.Fiscal Management & Budget 2023: With consistent growth in Direct & Indirect Taxes the FM will have more room to reduce taxes across the Board which has been her promise. Expect Budget '23 to be a BIG BANG Budget since it's the last full Budget before the 2024 General Elections
9.Expect Individual Income Tax Rates to be cut; rationalisation of other taxes eg GST & STT on the anvil; Most relevant: LTCG to be brought back. Bond Market regulations to be made FII friendly to get into Global Bond Index similar to S. Korea's actions. sports.yahoo.com.
10. Markets : Stock Markets will continue to be buoyant. Expect India to be among Top 3 Performers globally hence attracting FII flows. At the peak of 2021 Nifty traded at 28 P/E. Expect it to trade above 25 P/E through 2023 . Current P/E is 21.
11.Sectors: Financials likely to be the 1st choice with focus on PSU Banks; Pharma will be the Dark Horse especially Domestic facing. Infra, Auto & FMCG may shine. Metals; Defence & High PE(BAAP)stocks likely to underperform.Bottom seems to have been made in IT. Up but how much?
12.Size & Flavour: Mid caps-Small Caps-Large Caps is likely to be order of performance. Pure Equity likely to be ahead of Balanced; Debt Funds. HAPPY SAMVAT 2079. 🙏😍😊
14. @threadreaderapp . Please "unroll"
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