Intrinsic Compounding
Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

16 Tweets 2 reads Apr 07, 2023
Log Chart,
Breaking an important trend line and 200 DMA.
Margins normalising soon or going below normal?
Disc: tracking and teaching how to do cyclicals.
Margins dip below normal in Maize segment. Read the entire thread end to end.
Disc: not invested.
From EBIT of 20% to almost 11-12%
As domestic maize (corn) prices are trading higher by about 34% year-on-year at Rs 2,225 per quintal (ex-warehouse Chhindwara). Due to higher prices, the government is considering curbs on the export of maize.
As per market sources, the Ministry of Food Processing Industry has written to the Commerce Ministry proposing a ban after starch manufacturers raised the case of higher maize prices and non-availability.
In the coming months, the export demand from India for maize to the South East Asian nations would fade as their demand would shift towards South American corn as Argentina and Brazil start their new crop harvest.
India would be uncompetitive for exports in the Southeast Asian market as the FOB rates for Argentina corn is $282.5/MT, and Brazil is $287.25/MT while India is offering at $305/MT, and the CIF quote for Vietnam is $330.75/MT.
Read more at:
economictimes.indiatimes.com
Disclaimer:-
Not invested. Tracking the cycle live to understand more about How cyclical investing works
Long term PE and Earnings chart of GAEL,
Such business will always have volatile earnings, Idea is to get in when earnings take a temporary hit and PE on normalised earnings looks dirt cheap..patience.
Disc: not invested, teaching cyclicals with a live case study
The Indian government is mulling curbs on the export of maize (corn), including a ban, with its prices ruling above ₹2,150 a quintal and demand from the poultry and starch manufacturing sector increasing.
Across the country prices, and there is shortage of maize too
Inflation comes in at 6%+ due to eggs, cereals etc etc. Cost of eggs rise when cost of Feed rises like Maize, soya bean etc.
Check Maize prices in key markets for GAEL:-
Maharashtra:- 1920 per Quintal
Gujarat:- 2120 per Quintal
Uttrakhand:- 2100 per Quintal
Disc: no reco to buy or sell. I don't own the stock. Neither this is a reco to buy or sell. This is simply a thread to study cyclicals..
Used to be invested at bottom margin, and sold luckily before Peak margins. Check the chronology of the thread. Cycles.
Malda plant finally goes live.
Stock exhibiting signs of stage 4.
Disc: not invested. Read the thread from end to end. Play commodities by calling them commodities ^
EGG Prices have crashed, means the RM prices including Maize and Soya bean have corrected.
Here is the news:- krishijagran.com
RM has softened. Good for margins, now lets check the exports as published by Arihant capital.
Focus on GAEL and the export data. Coupled with this, company is increasing capacity from 4000 TPD in fY24 to 6000 TPD in FY26.
Substantial QOQ and YOY growth.
Initial Signs of Stage 2 with High Volumes post Base formation.
RS>Nifty 50. High Volumes.
Disc: No reco. Learn to connect all dots while analysing businesses. Fundas+technicals+Triggers.
Not a buy or sell reco by any means. Read from end to end on how cycles can be looked at.
*FY25- Correction

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