Musings of the Day, 10/27/22:
Gonna be pretty tough for the other major economic zones and associated CBs to outhawk the Fed.
🔥 🔥🔥
Gonna be pretty tough for the other major economic zones and associated CBs to outhawk the Fed.
🔥 🔥🔥
Replace “Peak Demand” with “Peak Supply” and you’ll be closer to the truth.
wsj.com
wsj.com
ECB tries to keep up with the Fed, but:
1. This only takes ECB front end to 1.5%…a LOT of wood to chop, literally and figuratively for Europe.
2. EUR down on the news.
wsj.com
1. This only takes ECB front end to 1.5%…a LOT of wood to chop, literally and figuratively for Europe.
2. EUR down on the news.
wsj.com
Tough to see DXY/USD Wrecking Ball (almost 60% EUR) cratering on these trajectories.
Guess that Oculus acquisition wound up costing a bit more than Zuck anticipated. Oof! $META
Couple observations signaling that the current bout of Intervention/Fed Pivot Hopium Risk Rip might be running out of steam:
-Long Bond flirting with red after recent spike
-High Duration Risk just turned red $QQQ $BTC
-Gold red
-EUR just turned red on ECB 75 bps
-Long Bond flirting with red after recent spike
-High Duration Risk just turned red $QQQ $BTC
-Gold red
-EUR just turned red on ECB 75 bps
It's deja vu all over again. Even as everyone is clamoring for Peak Inflation and a consequent Fed Pivot/Step-Down, OIL is setting us up for another resurgent bout of ENERGY INFLATION. Right back to where we started.
Feels very out-of-consensus and painful right now, but I am betting heavily on a Return to KAOS. $VIX
Interesting that $UVXY down and $VIX is up today.
How much wood could a Fed Chair chop if a Fed Chair could chop wood?
Welcome to the Geopolitical Mosh Pit, where it’s “Every CB For Itself.”
Implication: USD Wrecking Ball not done wrecking.
Implication: USD Wrecking Ball not done wrecking.
The funny. Very apropos to what I started today’s Musings with and what I said yesterday:
By the time the FED pauses, other CB’s will likely be EASING.
These guys make Pusillanimous Powell look like the Terminator.
By the time the FED pauses, other CB’s will likely be EASING.
These guys make Pusillanimous Powell look like the Terminator.
Global CB Quandary right now:
Imagine having a super-sensitive dial.
Turn it too much one way, and it's too COLD (DEPRESSION).
Turn it too much the other way, and it's too HOT (RUNAWAY INFLATION).
Getting it "just right" means you get a bit of both (STAGFLATION).
Imagine having a super-sensitive dial.
Turn it too much one way, and it's too COLD (DEPRESSION).
Turn it too much the other way, and it's too HOT (RUNAWAY INFLATION).
Getting it "just right" means you get a bit of both (STAGFLATION).
Wow. Just like CA. Glad they’ve got a robust electrical grid with reliable baseload to handle all those EVs. Just like CA.
Oh boy. Get the popcorn out. It’s gonna be a shitshow.
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