MMWR Wk 42 Update
Still no disposition given to our R00-R99 death group.
Much of this is heart related - and gives incompetent 'statisticians' (cannot model a dynamic system) the false confirmation (bias) that myocarditis/pericarditis/conductive heart disorder deaths are down.
Still no disposition given to our R00-R99 death group.
Much of this is heart related - and gives incompetent 'statisticians' (cannot model a dynamic system) the false confirmation (bias) that myocarditis/pericarditis/conductive heart disorder deaths are down.
One element of good news. Non-Natural Deaths are trending downward, and are being maintained as well now.
...this has another good news effect in that this reduces Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality in the outweeks (wks -13 thru -21). That has been reflected in our charts.
...this has another good news effect in that this reduces Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality in the outweeks (wks -13 thru -21). That has been reflected in our charts.
Influenza/Pneumonia has ticked up a bit, coming into season. Just a bit under last year - both years above seasonal trend at this time of the year.
Cancer remains at a 9-sigma pace.
Be cautious when assigning confidence interval style 'probability' to a sigma event. Sigma probabilities do not factor in the probability of a black swan impact - it is only a statistical test for signal vs noise in the relevant range measured.
Be cautious when assigning confidence interval style 'probability' to a sigma event. Sigma probabilities do not factor in the probability of a black swan impact - it is only a statistical test for signal vs noise in the relevant range measured.
Below see the net effect of managing Non-Natural Deaths. We observe a reduction in Natural Cause Deaths from week -13 to -21. This is not a lag issue.
Neither is this manipulation of the data. This is normal. This was not being maintained well until recently. We adjust for it.
Neither is this manipulation of the data. This is normal. This was not being maintained well until recently. We adjust for it.
This bit of good news serves to adjust our Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality down to 13% for week 42. Around 9 percentage points above ACM (which has been consistent for a while).
Our PFE used is 12% of the excess death total - certainly and probably over-conservative.
Our PFE used is 12% of the excess death total - certainly and probably over-conservative.
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