Musings of the Day, 11/4/22:
Early observations:
-Risk Assets/Gold higher based on ever so softer employment #'s.
-Long Bonds getting crushed, not sharing the same "optimistic appraisal of the situation, but then coming back a bit.
Early observations:
-Risk Assets/Gold higher based on ever so softer employment #'s.
-Long Bonds getting crushed, not sharing the same "optimistic appraisal of the situation, but then coming back a bit.
-USD Wrecking Ball lower which is kinda strange given Bonds.
-Oil is RIPPING -- ST Bullish call has been right so far. That said, I fucked up by taking profit too early on my Texas hedge (partially because I'm already so long through my PE position). May reenter later.
-Oil is RIPPING -- ST Bullish call has been right so far. That said, I fucked up by taking profit too early on my Texas hedge (partially because I'm already so long through my PE position). May reenter later.
-Bracing for more $VIX pain in ST but next CPI will be interesting as I think we could see a SYNCHRONOUS WALLOP BETWEEN CORE/ENERGY.
-Bottom line: it's a strange "one hand is not talking to the other" kinda market so far.
-Bottom line: it's a strange "one hand is not talking to the other" kinda market so far.
-Thankfully, I'm off to the race track in 2 hours, so I won't have to trade this confusing chop.š¤
Super strange to watch everything rip on this neutral jobs report even while the OG commodity that started this Inflation Conflagration -- OIL -- is ripping the most.
If China is the main reason for the Risk Rip, note that a full re-opening (I have my doubts) would be INFLATIONARY.
The fact that Cramer just said he likes Metallica means he's not wrong all the time. RESPECT! š¤š¤š¤
Risk Assets be like "INFLATION IS DEAD -- FED PIVOT!" while OIL quietly RIPS 4%. šš¤”
Sorry for the visual but:
RISK TURGIDITY -> RISK FLACCIDITY
I could see this day turning RED.
RISK TURGIDITY -> RISK FLACCIDITY
I could see this day turning RED.
Reposting, on why I have my doubts on full China re-opening:
Honestly, this has been one of the toughest tapes to navigate with conviction from both long and short sides. I'm embarrassed to say that my best trades lately have been buying 3m/6m UST Bills!
Nice rear ends. š
Choices, choices.
Nerding out.
Great for racingā¦and for plowing a field.š¤
Great for racingā¦and for shoveling snow.š¤
Great for racingā¦and for blow drying hair (just not my hair).š¤
Sure looks like I picked a good day to play hookie. I don't understand at all what happened today.š¤·āāļø
Iām flummoxed today:
- USD Wrecking Ball down 2% spurring Risk On in High Duration Risk (ex ShitCos)/Gold/$BTC
- BUT Long Bonds slammed in slight Bear Steepening while Oil RIPPEDā¦
- Both contradicting the DXY move
If anyone has a cogent explanation, Iām all earsā¦
- USD Wrecking Ball down 2% spurring Risk On in High Duration Risk (ex ShitCos)/Gold/$BTC
- BUT Long Bonds slammed in slight Bear Steepening while Oil RIPPEDā¦
- Both contradicting the DXY move
If anyone has a cogent explanation, Iām all earsā¦
Idk what everyone is all excited about next week, but Iām just looking forward to āScreaming For Vengeanceā at Judas Priest Monday night. Will be blissfully deaf for rest of week. š¤š¤š¤
Appreciate everyoneās takes. For whatever itās worth, I donāt agree with the āUSD down -> Oil upā arguments. In this cycle, Oil STRENGTH was one of the primary DRIVERS for the USD Wrecking Ball.
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