🧵Brief War Update: 2022-11-08
With each passing day I am increasingly convinced the Ukrainian army is largely a spent force.
And with each passing day it is increasingly apparent that the Russian forces along the line are stronger than at any previous time in this war.
1/

This doesn’t preclude a Russian general with more ambition than sense making a stupid move that gets a bunch of men and equipment shot up. You always see this sort of stupidity in war.
Nor are the Ukrainians beyond massing another 35k+ men for a cannon fodder run.
2/

But the tide of this war has been discernibly altered over the past month.
The AFU is exhausted and depleted. It can no longer mount a credible offensive against Russian defenses. Yet it is apparently still willing to sacrifice men and equipment in futile attempts.
3/

I expect the Russians to remain on the defensive and maul AFU attacks as long as Ukraine is willing to continue them.
On the other hand, the Ukrainians are still dangerous on the defensive, and the Russians are not yet sufficiently strengthened to make their big move.
4/

Hard to predict Russian leaders, but my sense is domestic and geopolitical considerations pressure them to act sooner than later.
That said, I acknowledge they may believe time is on their side and will stubbornly refuse to move boldly until they are damn good and ready.
5/end