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Hi all, been a while so figured it would be a good time to give an update on what I've been working on. Basically a ground level up study on supply requirements for Russian units and an effort to understand potential issues in Russian force design.
At this point in the conflict no one is close to full strength so the effort is mainly focused on the initial phases. There are a few English sources I've looked at (Russia Way of War by Bartles/Grau for one) but I've mainly used Russian sources.
Much of what I'm doing is confirming the setup of MTO battalions in Russian maneuver brigades and comparing it to what we've seen. Preliminary evidence suggests MTO battalions are substantially understrength via captured docs, footage, and imagery, but much work still to be done.
Then the data for total vehicles, ammunition, cargo capacity, and fuel is added to an Access database that I've attached screenshots of to determine at a deeper level what is going on.
After I'm satisfied with the maneuver brigade and lower numbers, I'll work my up to MTO, railroad brigades, and rear depots.
Preliminarily, I hope to be done with the motorized brigade analysis in the next month in preparation for future meeting in Sweden. Also exploring avenues for moving long form analysis off twitter to something like substack.
I've been planning to move to substack for a while (predating the Elon drama). Still intend to maintain a twitter account but work requirements (not related to Ukraine) have resulted in me not being able to track the conflict in realtime as I did before.
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