I do think the market could have bottomed IF we see a big miss towards the downside on CPI in 1.5 hours.
Would need Core CPI MoM at 0.2% or lower and CPI MoM at 0.3% or lower imo.
So a -0.3% miss. Not likely. Would be bullish enough to pull us out of the hole a bit more.
Would need Core CPI MoM at 0.2% or lower and CPI MoM at 0.3% or lower imo.
So a -0.3% miss. Not likely. Would be bullish enough to pull us out of the hole a bit more.
I think that this would bring the market up a bit and then we range/consolidate a bit higher up while all the forced selling from the FTX contagion takes place gradually over time.
If risk on is back I think it would be hard for the market to push us that deep with, most likely, peak fear being behind us by 1-2 days.
Obviously just some thoughts, and the current market environment is very hard to navigate.
Obviously just some thoughts, and the current market environment is very hard to navigate.
The main thing I always try to figure out is if the future expectation is better or worse than what is actually going to happen.
There are a lot of uncertainties right now so thatโs what everyone is trying to figure out.
There are a lot of uncertainties right now so thatโs what everyone is trying to figure out.
I do think there will still be a lot of contagion that will put downward pressure on the market which may keep it suppressed for a while.
Doesnโt mean it HAS to make new lows though.
Liquidity is very thin atm so not much is needed to move the market either side.
Doesnโt mean it HAS to make new lows though.
Liquidity is very thin atm so not much is needed to move the market either side.
To summarize:
Bottom may be in IF we get a big surprise in CPI which turns the marketโs risk on.
Contagion will put downward pressure on the market but not sure if it is enough to send us that low again if we see risk on in other markets.
Bottom may be in IF we get a big surprise in CPI which turns the marketโs risk on.
Contagion will put downward pressure on the market but not sure if it is enough to send us that low again if we see risk on in other markets.
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