Musings of the Day, 11/10/22:
Mkt likes the print.
So does OIL. π€
Mkt likes the print.
So does OIL. π€
Was wondering exactly the sameβ¦
For this to be the cyclical top in the USD Wrecking Ball, I think either 1 of 2 things must happen:
1. RoW CBβs out-hawk the Fed
2. Fed out-doves RoW
Color me skeptical on either.
1. RoW CBβs out-hawk the Fed
2. Fed out-doves RoW
Color me skeptical on either.
I donβt care what side of the market youβre on, but metal explains everything. π€
youtu.be
youtu.be
That all said, this is the first significant break of the steep uptrend in the DXY started a year ago, and one must respect the market. Need to see if it's a false break in the coming weeks.
Recycling this thought.
My PNL is exactly ZERO over the last 2-day period. Frustrating, but could be worse I guess.
I am chuckling at the idiocy of these gyrations.
So let me get this right, the market repriced Terminal FFR expectations down 30 bps, and Risk Rips in self-defeating fashion yet again. What does that portend for HOW LONG we stay at that Terminal FFR?
So let me get this right, the market repriced Terminal FFR expectations down 30 bps, and Risk Rips in self-defeating fashion yet again. What does that portend for HOW LONG we stay at that Terminal FFR?
The BEST trades I've done over the last month continue to be the 3m/6m/1yr T-Bills I bought. Literally, everything else has been noise. SMH...π
The definition of Premature Emasculation.
Wow, so the tread thickness on that bulldozer bearing down on your head is a little less than anticipated. BULLISH!!! π€‘
Red Wave yesterday (albeit not the one folks expected). Green Wave today. At least it wasn't a Blue Wave.
The Synchronous Wallop between Core/Energy didn't happen, but I go back to my base case of the Asynchronous Tag-Team of Core/Energy for the next several YEARS.
I think Inflation 1 year from now will surprise many by how stubbornly high it still is.
I think Inflation 1 year from now will surprise many by how stubbornly high it still is.
Idiosyncratic PNL > Negative hedge PNL finally.
Having a decent day now despite coming with a big bearish overlay. Iβm sure itβll reverse tomorrow. π€‘
Having a decent day now despite coming with a big bearish overlay. Iβm sure itβll reverse tomorrow. π€‘
Sentiment Poll:
What Inning of this Bear Market are we in?
What Inning of this Bear Market are we in?
I wonder how much of these moves are due to 0dte gamma chasers?
See y'all on Facebook? π
π¬π¬π¬
Shaq too? I do miss his free-throwsβ¦wsj.com
Pretty amazing that every financial crisis since the Dawn of Time arises out of the same basic issue:
Asset/Liability Mismatch
And yet, Humankind keeps at it throughout the millennia.
Asset/Liability Mismatch
And yet, Humankind keeps at it throughout the millennia.
The more I think about it, the more these extreme market gyrations seem to have the earmarks of 0DTE gamma squeezes -- in both directions.
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