Nick Timiraos
Nick Timiraos

@NickTimiraos

5 Tweets Jan 18, 2023
Fed governor Christopher Waller on the October CPI report:
"The market seemed to get waaaa-aaaay out in front.... I just cannot stress this is one data point."
"We've still got a ways to go."
Waller on the loosening of financial conditions that followed Thursday's market reaction.
"This is exactly the situation we had gotten into in July."
Back then, there was "a loosening of financial conditions that we were trying not to do."
7.7% CPI inflation "is enormous."
Waller on inflation expectations: If expectations were to become unanchored, you wouldn't see it happening with a lot of advanced notice in the data. It wouldn't happen gradually.
"You don't pop a balloon slowly. Once it goes, it goes."
Waller: If you use a Taylor-type policy rule, short-term interest rates aren't that high.
"We're not that tight. Real rates are barely positive a year out."
Waller: The FOMC statement in November was designed to signal a potential step down to 50 basis points.
"We knew the markets were going to jump for joy."
So the Fed used Powell's press conference to "drive the point home" that it's the ultimate level for rates that matters.

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