UKRAINE WAR SCENARIOS
Just a minor update, I think there's currently two main likely scenarios.
Just a minor update, I think there's currently two main likely scenarios.
(1) Frontlines progressively freeze plus or minus where they are if Russia gets its act together.
70% likelihood
70% likelihood
Cold War will continue for a long time, but Russia's population advantage over Ukraine grows and sets it in good stead for decisively winning the next war assuming kremlins can learn as Azerbaijan did after Karabakh War (a big assumption admittedly).
(2) Total defeat, including loss of Crimea, in which case subsequent color revolution, etc., in which case there's zero point in continuing to retain any Great Power ambitions or "ideological" projects.
I'd give that a 20% chance.
I'd give that a 20% chance.
It's premature to discuss it much, but I unironically think Russia's best bet in this scenario is to just drape Saint Basil's Cathedral museum in a rainbow flag to reinvent its image under GAE, making itself useful to the powers that actually matter.
Most important task would be to retain a big nuclear deterrent and avoid taking sides against China, as that's the surest path to making Haishenwai real. So literally the worst post-Putin outcome would be the victory of MAGA/neocon/"Based Poland" aping type nationalists.
As they would put Russia on a collision course with an immeasurably stronger Power in service of foreign Powers, while not even making Russia attractive to the kind of soys who would accelerate its technological convergence and make it respectable within the WEF and Davos.
(3) I view the chances of the realization of anything resembling the original Novorossiya visions or more maximalist visions in this war as being very low, just not worth even considering at that point.
If Russia can take a city like Kharkov or Zaparozhya, we can revise that.
If Russia can take a city like Kharkov or Zaparozhya, we can revise that.
Russia's military military problem is as I've said ultimately has to do with the human software, not hardware.
War economy is still critical, but the former can't be fixed within a year or two, it needs at least a decade of focus and probably isn't even possible under Putin.
War economy is still critical, but the former can't be fixed within a year or two, it needs at least a decade of focus and probably isn't even possible under Putin.
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