Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis

@michaelxpettis

4 Tweets Jan 07, 2023
1/4
This is the key point: "Markets cheered the measures, which included loan repayment extensions and easier access to fresh funding, but analysts say they only address the property market's supply problems, with the demand recovery still a key concern."
reuters.com
2/3
For years developers were in a frenzy to borrow and build more apartments than the economy needed mainly because of the huge speculative demand for apartments, and in a speculative market investors only buy because they expect continuously rising prices.
3/4
As I've long noted, once the expectation of continuously rising prices disappears, the system must unravel: prices must eventually decline and the property sector contract, and as prices decline, this is reinforced by pressure it creates for speculative selling.
4/4
The only way to "rescue" the property sector, in other words, is somehow to reignite expectations of continuously rising real estate prices, which at this point may be impossible.

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