trends i think will be important for the next 5-10 years
1) computer revolution hasn’t happened yet
2) disconnect between energy goals & energy realities
3) banking, money & payments on the internet
4) end of globalization as we know it
5) mission critical infrastructure
1) computer revolution hasn’t happened yet
2) disconnect between energy goals & energy realities
3) banking, money & payments on the internet
4) end of globalization as we know it
5) mission critical infrastructure
obv not an exhaustive list, obv still important to identify which companies will benefit the most from these trends (& which companies will get hurt by them) i guess as a wannabe scientist i look for things in the world that are as close to inevitable as possible & go from there
1) computer revolution hasn’t happened yet
title is obv a bit provocative but i genuinely believe the shift in mindset from resource constrained (compute & memory are scarce) to resource abundant will enable ideas that were previously unthinkable up until this point in time
title is obv a bit provocative but i genuinely believe the shift in mindset from resource constrained (compute & memory are scarce) to resource abundant will enable ideas that were previously unthinkable up until this point in time
examples include the many advances in machine learning & companies deciding to design their own silicon chips. this has enabled technical advances like tik tok having their own model for each user & apples state of the art M2 chip, amongst many others & it seems to be enabling a
new way of thinking, which is rly what i mean when i say it feels like we’re on the cusp of another revolution in computing. i could probably do a whole thread on each topic but ill just sort of gloss over them rn for brevitys sake & feel free to reply w your thoughts or examples
2) energy realities vs goals
this is by no means my field of expertise but something as fundamental as energy affects nearly every part of our daily life & interacts w technology in various ways that will be crucial in the coming years. one example of this is electric vehicles
this is by no means my field of expertise but something as fundamental as energy affects nearly every part of our daily life & interacts w technology in various ways that will be crucial in the coming years. one example of this is electric vehicles
many countries are setting carbon emission targets & EVs play an important role in those (potentially overly idealistic) visions of the future. EVs require a massive investment in the procurement of materials required to make the batteries that power the cars & not only does this
dynamic seem to be inherently inflationary, the process itself seems to be energy intensive in a way that will need to rely on traditional fossil fuel sources to extract, refine, distribute etc. the materials required to make the vehicles, the batteries & charging stations. other
areas that are of interest include the data centers that warehouse the massive amount of computing power that we rely on for our every day life. there are definitely efforts to reduce carbon footprints from cloud computing giants but reality is that the more computing resources
that the world consumes, the more energy will be required. again these are just a couple of examples, i’m sure someone w far more expertise than i have could write a much better thread of the details of the mismatch between energy goals vs energy realities(& i’d love to read it!)
3) banking, money & payments on the internet
this is a broad one because it encompasses the digitization of nearly all the worlds financial transactions. smartphones & near ubiquitous access to the internet have enabled various efforts to digitize the entire fintech stack in
this is a broad one because it encompasses the digitization of nearly all the worlds financial transactions. smartphones & near ubiquitous access to the internet have enabled various efforts to digitize the entire fintech stack in
developed countries but there still exists a massive gap in many parts of the world where people do not have access to basic banking services. this trend has obviously been a prominent one over the past few years w the explosion in both crypto & fintech companies coming to market
this trend will require investors to parse out what’s real & lindy wrt fintech and what was just a product of a zero interest rate environment. we’ve seen companies like plaid & stripe provide valuable infrastructure & help developers build financial services on top of their tech
and we’ve also seen what i think is an increase amount of reliance on existing payment rails from the incumbents like Visa & Mastercard. there’s also the question of how legacy infrastructure (ACH, SWIFT, FEDNOW etc.) will play a role in future innovations. at the end of the day,
consumers care abt having reliable & trustworthy financial services that they can count on to handle the myriad interactions they have w finance (banking & payments being two of the most important because of the frequency of interactions but investments & loans important as well)
there’s also the question of the role crypto plays in a future where everyone is interacting w financial technology potentially multiple times a day. i’m no expert here so i won’t give any opinion but it’d be impossible to leave it out of a discussion abt the future of fintech
4) the end of globalization as we know it
again i don’t pretend to be any sort of geopolitical expert but looking at this trend from the lens of semiconductor manufacturing & the semi supply chain, there appears to be a noticeable effort for countries to reevaluate their trade
again i don’t pretend to be any sort of geopolitical expert but looking at this trend from the lens of semiconductor manufacturing & the semi supply chain, there appears to be a noticeable effort for countries to reevaluate their trade
relationships & the partners they rely on (especially for industries that in some form or another, are “mission critical” to every day life, which is the next trend i want to talk abt). the obvious example is tensions between the US & China and concerns abt a possible invasion of
Taiwan, which would be devastating on so many levels for the entire world & could potentially set the semi industry back many years. based on the current dynamics of global trade, it would seem that many majors players of the worlds economy have extrapolated a future in which
globalization persists indefinitely, and are sort of scrambling to imagine scenarios where they can onshore or reshore critical parts of various supply chains that they depend on for everyday life. again not an expert but this should impact the global flow of capital & trade to
some degree, which brings me to my 5th trend.
5) mission critical infrastructure
from data centers & telecom infrastructure to power grids & food supply chains to access to critical materials & resources such as cement & steel, as countries look to secure a reliable supply
5) mission critical infrastructure
from data centers & telecom infrastructure to power grids & food supply chains to access to critical materials & resources such as cement & steel, as countries look to secure a reliable supply
chain amidst a climate of decreasing or decelerating globalization, i think there will be increased attention & focus on areas that are “mission critical” to every day life (especially in the wake of the terrible war in Ukraine) on the subject, i also expect a sense of urgency
in country’s efforts to not only increase the reliability & resilience of their mission critical infrastructure but also more attention & investment towards defense spending (private companies like anduril are rly interesting, also expecting lots of investment into cybersecurity)
ok running out of tweets available in this thread but the main purpose was the provide a high level overview of trends im looking at & think will be important in the coming years (obv can’t cover everything in detail) pls feel free to share your thoughts & reply w links or stats
abt things that you think will be the prominent (even better if there’s a sense of “inevitability”) trends in the coming years. i’ll do my best to come back to each topic in more detail as i continue to do research & try to understand the mechanics of how they’re all intertwined
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