EPS or earnings fears.
The earnings through lagged behind the market 75% (15 out of the 20) of the last bear markets.
The average lag is 6.5 months or about 2 quarters.
More from jpm: am.jpmorgan.com
The earnings through lagged behind the market 75% (15 out of the 20) of the last bear markets.
The average lag is 6.5 months or about 2 quarters.
More from jpm: am.jpmorgan.com
The most recent crisis shows the same pattern.
2000 shows an outlier, you will notice that the gdp never dipped.
Point being most bearish views now that inflation seems to have peaked are based on an earnings recession.
Index fair value = EPS x discount rate (bonds)
Yet history tells us that when most will be ultra bearish due to it, the bottom will likely already be in.
Index fair value = EPS x discount rate (bonds)
Yet history tells us that when most will be ultra bearish due to it, the bottom will likely already be in.
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