Some thoughts on Rishi Sunak's first foreign policy speech: there's not much new substance there, which isn't surprising. But there's a clear shift in emphasis away from Liz Truss' framing of world as contest between democracy and authoritarianism 1/ gov.uk
He says that when it comes to competing with China and Russia, UK can't "depend on Cold War arguments or approaches, or mere sentimentality about our past". Given scale of challenge, he says that "short-termism or wishful thinking will not suffice". 2/
The last point is an important one, which I've been making for some time. However, Sunak fails (as have previous Conservative govts) to offer a clear vision for how he wants to address the global challenge that China represents. 3/
Beyond defensive measures to shield certain parts of the UK's economy and technology sector, how is the UK going to equip itself to compete in a world where China has increasing weight and global systems and rules become more contested? 4/
Sunak mentions AUKUS & CPTPP (but not ASEAN Dialogue Partner status). These are mechanisms for deeper engagement that require big future investment if they're to bear fruit. Without investing in UK's China & Asia capabilities, it sounds like "short-termism or wishful thinking" 4/
Hopefully, the refresh to the Integrated Review will offer a more positive vision for what the UK can do in the Indo-Pacific and how the government will invest to turn rhetoric into reality. I've made the case to officials working on the refresh. But money is tight! 5/
We shouldn't expect too much from any single speech. The contours of a tougher China policy have been shaping up for some time. But the shift to a more subtle, and realistic, framing of geopolitical competition is welcome. ENDS
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