COVID-19: Ontario Variants Update (Sequencing to Nov. 23, 2022)
Time for another update on COVID variants in Ontario, Canada. The BA.5.* variants are decreasing significantly and being replaced by BQ.* variants ( app.powerbi.com ) Graphs by: @Mike_Honey_ 🧵1/
Time for another update on COVID variants in Ontario, Canada. The BA.5.* variants are decreasing significantly and being replaced by BQ.* variants ( app.powerbi.com ) Graphs by: @Mike_Honey_ 🧵1/
The top 7 variants circulating in Ontario are:
8.7% = BQ.1.1 "Cerberus"
7.6% = BA.5.2.1
7.1% = BA.2.75.2 "Chiron"
6.4% = BQ.1 "Typhon"
5.8% = BA.5.2
5.3% = BF.7 "Minotaur"
3.0% = BQ.1.2
2/
8.7% = BQ.1.1 "Cerberus"
7.6% = BA.5.2.1
7.1% = BA.2.75.2 "Chiron"
6.4% = BQ.1 "Typhon"
5.8% = BA.5.2
5.3% = BF.7 "Minotaur"
3.0% = BQ.1.2
2/
The next highest 7 variants circulating in Ontario are:
2.7% = BA.4.6 "Aeterna"
2.4% = BA.5.1.30
2.0% = BE.1.2.1
1.8% = BF.28
1.6% = BF.5
1.3% = BA.5.1
1.3% = BQ.1.13
3/
2.7% = BA.4.6 "Aeterna"
2.4% = BA.5.1.30
2.0% = BE.1.2.1
1.8% = BF.28
1.6% = BF.5
1.3% = BA.5.1
1.3% = BQ.1.13
3/
The following chart shows the predicted immune escape of variants vs ACE2 binding relative to the BA.2 variant where the top right corner of the chart is the worst ( public.tableau.com ). Chart by: @RajlabN 4/
You can see that most of the current top 8 circulating variants (highlighted in blue text) have much higher immune escape than the BA.5.1 and BA.5.2* variants that are starting to go away. 5/
This increased immune escape and waning antibody levels for people who got their last COVID vaccine dose or who were infected more than 3 months ago could lead to a new round of reinfections. 6/
You can follow the progress of COVID variant mutations with these handy diagrams, one following BA.1/BA.2 evolution and the other BA.4/5 evolution which both show monoclonal resistance ( ). 7/
As variants mutate, one of the impacts is monoclonal antibody treatments become less effective or no longer work in newer variants. There are a whole bunch of variants which contain mutations that are resistant to Evusheld and Bebtelovimab. 8/
The FDA recently removed authorization to use Bebtelovimab anywhere in the USA because of BQ.1 "Typhon" and BQ.1.1 "Cerberus" ( fda.gov ). 9/
As you can see from the graphs above, instead of one variant being completely dominant in an area now, there are many different variants circulating. 10/
In the USA there are still BA.5*, BA.2.75* and bA.2.3.20* variants circulating that could be neutralized by Bebtelovimab but can no longer be used making treatment options more difficult ( ). 11/
COVID wastewater levels in Ottawa, Canada have been relatively flat the past week but you can see they have never gone back down to low levels since Omicron BA.1 hit a year ago. 12/
The new "baseline" is quite elevated showing there is a still a significant amount of COVID circulating in the community. 13/
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