4 Tweets Dec 09, 2022
South Korea issue isn't isolated to corporate debt or construction, it's the whole system, especially the households.
Too leveraged. bloomberg.com
And there is a country that is even more leveraged in EM Asia - CHINA!!! Yes, totally.
What's wrong w/ leverage you say if they are owned onshore? Shouldn't that limit the problem? Well...
Debt has to be repaid & so sustainability depends on either higher income or lower costs
But growth isn't accelerating and costs aren't going down. So 2022 has been a disaster for sectors that are:
a) leveraged
b) lower income
c) higher costs
All road to Asia recovery in 2023 depends on this:
a) The Fed to be less hawkish, better yet to pivot
b) Costs to go down, both inputs and rates
c) China to stop being a drag via imports and start importing as US and EU demand sags in 2023.

Loading suggestions...