Should England consider changing to a back 3 for the quarter-final against France?
🧵A thread:
🧵A thread:
Many thought Southgate may get England to line up in a back 3 this tournament after the success the system had brought him at the 2018 WC & Euro 2020. With the perceived ‘easy’ group, the need to play a more conservative system was reduced & thus a back 4 was more than sufficient
This continued into the Senegal game, where again England were favourites but the threat that the AFCON champions possessed was not underestimated. Southgate felt England could dominate the game and impose themselves on their opponents rather than fear them so stuck with a back 4
All the talk about Saturday’s game with France has been around how England combat the threat of Mbappe. Rightly so, given the speed and ability of the 23y/o. Walker is seen as perhaps the only fullback in the world who has a chance of matching Mbappe in a race.
What must be considered, though, is that stopping Mbappe is not just about matching him for speed. There is also the fact that Walker is 9 years older than Mbappe and naturally his pace has decreased, albeit only slightly.
Mbappe was handled well by Matty Cash in the first half of Poland’s 3-1 defeat to France in the last round. It was only once Mbappe started to roam inside in the second half that he caused Poland real problems. This was where he got his 2 goals and assist for Giroud from.
This is why a shift to a back 3 will be tempting for Southgate. If Walker is utilised as the right centre back in a 3, this means that Trippier plays rwb.
Trippier cannot match Mbappe for pace of course but, in this system, if Trippier is beaten down the line then Walker can come across and if Mbappe comes inside Walker is there to engage him in a more crowded area - this leaves England less exposed 1 on 1 vs Mbappe.
It should be noted that Poland played a back 4 against France so once Mbappe roamed inside there was no one who could vacate the back line to pressure him. This was Krychowiak’s job as the CDM but his lack of mobility meant this was never really feasible.
The problem with the back 3 & approach is it gives France the initiative. If England are to really trouble France then they must believe they are at the very least equal to them if not superior. By playing a back 3 one of the attacking players must be sacrificed.
England are the highest scorers in the tournament and must believe that they can score against this France side. History tells us (Croatia 2018, Italy 2021) that when England allow teams superior to them in possession to dominate the game that it does not end well.
If England are to play a back 4, then Henderson’s role is even more vital. Against Senegal, Henderson was given licence to roam forward and was often arriving in the box when were attacking. I.E his goal.
Against France, Henderson’s role would be very different but one he is very comfortable with. Defensively, Henderson’s role would be to help in the right hand channel and double up on Mbappe with Walker.
This is a role he performs at club level on a regular basis. Often go cover Alexander-Arnold when he roams forward but also to accommodate Salah staying forward whilst Liverpool defend.
You can see from this average positions map that Henderson (8) was operating on the right of the midfield 3 and it was noticeable how often he pulled wide to the right of midfield to create space and receive the ball.
His heat map also evidenced this, although he was given licence to roam as England looked to attack. It would be surprising if Henderson has much, if any, involvement on the left hand side against France.
Much like Salah for Liverpool, this approach would allow Saka to stay high up the pitch where he can be most effective. If England do end up out of possession for periods of the game, Saka being high is crucial to allow England to counter attack.
Ironically, this could also help England defensively. Saka would push Hernandez back, preventing him from being able to surge forward & overlap/under lap Mbappe to create more space for the PSG man to operate in.
As outlined, there are benefits to going with either a back 3 or sticking with the current system to prevent France’s biggest threat. However, there are still Giroud, Dembele and Griezmann to worry about regardless.
It would be pleasing to see England and Southgate back themselves and go toe-to-toe with the World Champions. Ultimately, though, this is tournament football and only the end result really matters.
So, what should England do: Stick with the back 4 or change to a back 3?
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