Rattibha

My Views & Expectations On The Current Market 📚
I think, required to reach further high timeframe downside targets we'd need to see:
A. Further Forced Selling.
B. A Black Swan Event.
Thread 👇
1/25

I am of the belief that the big majority of people that could qualify as voluntary sellers would have sold by now.
I am also of the belief that most forced selling by institutions/lenders/miners, that already went under publically, would have happened by now as well.
2/25

For the ones that are in the bankruptcy process and have not liquidated every asset just yet, it may take months or years before those get sold off to pay creditors.
3/25

Imo, that leaves just two options now.
A. Further forced selling by a new player which isn't known just yet.
Obviously, after the past year I am not ruling out a single thing. I'm not here to say it is impossible and that all is good in the world from here on out.
4/25

This is a fair risk in the market and depending on the size of this player it could impose further downward pressure on the market.
This we'll only find out over time.
5/25

I do think the chances for new forced liquidations go down with 2 factors:
1. Time. The longer it takes the less likely these new players show up.
2. The market not falling further.
6/25

I think it is very unlikely that if the market doesn't make major new lows and we're a few months into the new year, that a new major forced seller will show up as increasing asset prices will help those who may be in distress now.
7/25

Due to this you can also see how increasing OR decreasing prices will have this snowball effect as we have already seen during 2022.
Lower prices = More losses/liquidations = More forced sellers wash up.
Higher prices would obviously have the opposite effect.
8/25

Now my second option for lower high timeframe targets being reached would be:
B. A Black Swan.
We can obviously make all kind of conspiracies and/or speculate on what is going to happen next but it's called a black swan for a reason.
9/25

I won't go into this subject much since people's track record of "predicting" black swans has been abysmal throughout the past century.
I am of no belief that I have much useful to say about the matter myself.
10/25

Lastly, if everyone predicts for a certain black swan to occur, is it really still a black swan at that point?
Sellers will sell. Buyers will buy. Based on the information presented by them at the time.
11/25

Back to my initial statement: To reach further high timeframe down side targets the market needs either forced sellers or a new black swan to occur.
Whether you agree or not is entirely up to you.
12/25

Maybe you are in the camp that's certain there's going to be much more forced OR voluntary selling which would in that case definitely push the price lower.
I am personally doubtful of that right now.
13/25

The tweet below I wrote about a month ago and it kinda summarizes this thread I'm writing here.
14/25

I think due to the sheer amount of forced selling & fear that has already occured, the market needs new fud/fear/forced sellers to fuel the downside trend even further as it's obviously extended deep deep into the bear market already.
15/25

It is also apparent to me that people that want to see lower targets are eagerly on the look out for new kind of fud to appear to fuel their bias and reach their desired targets.
This makes sense as everyone is guilty of looking for their bias confirmation in a way.
16/25

What it creates though is a very toxic environment where no party is save from being attacked and legit businesses/people are getting fudded by people eager to see more destruction happen to the space just so they can get "revenge" or buy in lower.
17/25

I think this is not great to see but a logical state of the market we're in after all that has happened this year.
The same happened in March 2020 where especially on Wall Street Bets there were people celebrating more sickness in the world just so their puts would print.
18/25

So to summarize:
I am of the belief that to see further high timeframe downside targets, the market would need further negative news to come out.
I think no news = good news and the longer the period of no news the better for the market.
19/25

We'd slowly see some form of trust return into the system and also people more eager to take on more risk again as the immediate risk of more forced selling seems to have disappeared by then.
20/25

You can see this as a bottom call or don't. I thought 17.6K in June was a good contender as a bottom but that one obviously didn't turn out to be correct and I have no issue clearly stating that.
It might have been if FTX didn't blow up but we'll never know.
21/25

I gave my arguments and plans for what I expect the market to do if nothing new shows up. That's what I'm sharing here and how I think about it.
Obviously if you're expecting further bad things to develop your bias will be entirely different and that's fine :)
22/25

I am personally just not a fan of waiting for further "bad" things to happen which may never come. That's why I prefer to focus on the charts and not think about the "what if" too much currently as it will have a good chance of putting you on the wrong foot.
23/25

Speaking about the chart, the $17.6K level is still my main HTF level to watch. I think a retake (and hold) of that level would confirm this to be a big deviation and I'd play the old range we were in from there.
24/25

I hope you found this thread interesting and or helpful.
Keep in mind this is just MY current opinion and you're entitled to have your own. I won't argue against any of that.
Keep the replies positive ✌️
This thread is no financial advice :)
Enjoy your day! 😄
25/25

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