I have to admit I find myself puzzled by the Russian strategy at this point, which seems to be to maximize the human misery of the war while minimizing their own gains.
The strikes on Ukrainian electrical infrastructure in particular seem like an obvious dead end. 1/
The strikes on Ukrainian electrical infrastructure in particular seem like an obvious dead end. 1/
Key military production facilities will obviously be prioritized for what power and repairs are available and in any event, production in Ukraine is not really the fundamental foundation for the Ukrainian military.
Putin needs to turn off the lights in Pennsylvania for that. 2/
Putin needs to turn off the lights in Pennsylvania for that. 2/
So Putin thinks he's going to degrade Ukrainian will by freezing civilians?
To believe that will work, you have to believe that someone who sent their son/daughter/brother/sister/spouse off to go fight in a cold trench in the Donbas is going to give up because it's cold. 3/
To believe that will work, you have to believe that someone who sent their son/daughter/brother/sister/spouse off to go fight in a cold trench in the Donbas is going to give up because it's cold. 3/
And a *Russian* of all people should know this; Leningrad was under siege for more than two years and didn't surrender. They weren't just out of power and heat fuel, they ran out of food - hundreds of thousands of civilians died.
That didn't break their will. 4/
That didn't break their will. 4/
If anything, I think the dismal history of strategic bombing efforts to degrade civilian will suggest that what will actually happen is that Ukrainian will to resist will harden, as hope for victory combines with the need to make the Russians pay for all the suffering. 5/
Meanwhile the rest of the Russian army seems insistent to gnaw at the end of old attritional plots, trying to recreate in Bakhmut the grinding summer attrition in the Donbas which ::checks notes:: led to tremendously successful Ukrainian country-attacks. 🤷♂️ 6/
Now I don't want to minimize the suffering this is going to cause; cold can kill and I don't doubt that the loss of Ukraine's electrical grid in winter will lead to a great many avoidable civilian deaths. It's going to be tragic.
But it won't end the war. /end
But it won't end the war. /end
Typo correction: counter-attacks not country-attacks 🤷♂️
Also, I wrote "fundamental foundation" and as a result must now quit writing forever and become a monk.
Also, I wrote "fundamental foundation" and as a result must now quit writing forever and become a monk.
Loading suggestions...