Thoughts on the next 48 hours with CPI & FOMC 👇
Core CPI YoY 6.1% Expected (Last 6.3%)
Core CPI MoM 0.3% Expected (Last 0.3%)
CPI YoY 7.3% Expected (Last 7.7%)
CPI MoM 0.3% Expected (Last 0.4%)
Core CPI YoY 6.1% Expected (Last 6.3%)
Core CPI MoM 0.3% Expected (Last 0.3%)
CPI YoY 7.3% Expected (Last 7.7%)
CPI MoM 0.3% Expected (Last 0.4%)
As we see above, the MoM (Month over Month) expectations for November seem to be very similar to last month's numbers.
0.3% MoM Inflation is still above the desired number of 0.1-0.2% but is showing a slowdown compared to the rest of 2022.
0.3% MoM Inflation is still above the desired number of 0.1-0.2% but is showing a slowdown compared to the rest of 2022.
What number we'll get would be a complete guess and I wouldn't recommend anyone actively trying to predict these number as it can be all over the place.
A few things I do want to note:
1. The fact that we pumped into the CPI event is a reason to be more cautious with longs. This gives a bigger chance of downside in case the number comes in at estimations.
Obviously price is likely to go up still if the number comes in low.
1. The fact that we pumped into the CPI event is a reason to be more cautious with longs. This gives a bigger chance of downside in case the number comes in at estimations.
Obviously price is likely to go up still if the number comes in low.
Just be extra careful trading into the direction that price was going to prior to these unknown data events happening.
2. I do think in the case of a lower than expected number we might see some big rally in equities & BTC just like last time. I do think if this rally is quite large that Powell will try to talk/calm the market back down a bit tomorrow during his FOMC speech.
I think there is a good chance for FOMC to retrace whatever move we make today anyways, regardless of what happens or what direction we go to.
3. What happens AFTER all this is over is what will be really telling.
The way the market digests everything is what I'm really watching for.
e.g. the last CPI print that came in above expectations caused a quick dump in CPI in October but market the local low still as we speak
The way the market digests everything is what I'm really watching for.
e.g. the last CPI print that came in above expectations caused a quick dump in CPI in October but market the local low still as we speak
The strength of that rebound, even though the number was bad, really told you more than you needed to know about the direction for the weeks following it.
Obviously crypto/btc is in a bit of a different spot right now but you get the idea.
Obviously crypto/btc is in a bit of a different spot right now but you get the idea.
Lastly, since I always get this question, if you want to see these numbers come out live check out:
investing.com
investing.com
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