Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis

@michaelxpettis

4 Tweets Jan 07, 2023
1/4
More Chinese inland localities are moving to spur economic growth with forceful measures, says the Global Times. Local governments, they report, propose regaining economic momentum by doubling down on investment.
globaltimes.cn
2/4
But without a rise in consumption, and with weakening exports, it is unlikely that private businesses will want to invest. This means that most of any increase in investment must be driven by public sector investment in infrastructure.
3/4
The main concession to boosting consumption seems to be to encourage the service sector to resume operations, as if their main constraint weren't lack of effective demand for their services.
4/4
Policy advisors increasingly recognize that the only sustainable way to increase the consumption share of GDP is to increase the household income share, but so far Beijing seems incapable of designing and implementing specific polices that do so.

Loading suggestions...