2/5
While much of the debate will now focus on whether or not China can reach the target, for me the much more important discussion is on the quality of the growth it is able to achieve, and the sustainability of that growth.
While much of the debate will now focus on whether or not China can reach the target, for me the much more important discussion is on the quality of the growth it is able to achieve, and the sustainability of that growth.
3/5
Although I expect the first quarter to be quite difficult, as China adjusts to the end of zero-COVID policy (and assuming that they're able to adjust non-disruptively without once again reversing policies), I think they will be able quite easily to achieve a 5% growth target.
Although I expect the first quarter to be quite difficult, as China adjusts to the end of zero-COVID policy (and assuming that they're able to adjust non-disruptively without once again reversing policies), I think they will be able quite easily to achieve a 5% growth target.
4/5
I also continue to think growth in 2023 will be relatively "high quality", as we see a partial reversal of the steep contraction in the consumption share of GDP during 2022.
But even if this sets off a China-is-back sentiment, it won't be sustainable.
I also continue to think growth in 2023 will be relatively "high quality", as we see a partial reversal of the steep contraction in the consumption share of GDP during 2022.
But even if this sets off a China-is-back sentiment, it won't be sustainable.
5/5
Not only will Chinese imbalances remain incredibly deep, but China will not even be able to recover much of the ground lost in the past three years, and so much of the growth it does achieve will be "given back" in the form of a more costly future economic adjustment.
Not only will Chinese imbalances remain incredibly deep, but China will not even be able to recover much of the ground lost in the past three years, and so much of the growth it does achieve will be "given back" in the form of a more costly future economic adjustment.
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