France don't press, & Argentina don't press often. This means that we will see a variety of themes throughout game.
At 0-0, it will be very close possession-wise with each team only pressing after attacks break down in the final 3rd. Prepare for tension.
World Cup Final THREAD!
At 0-0, it will be very close possession-wise with each team only pressing after attacks break down in the final 3rd. Prepare for tension.
World Cup Final THREAD!
The lack of pressing will result in easy access to the ball because of the oppositions unwillingness (France) & incapability (Argentina) of retrieving possession quickly via settled pressing.
The opening goal will likely originate from an attack vs a low block or on the counter.
The opening goal will likely originate from an attack vs a low block or on the counter.
Or a theme off the back of that such as a basic counterpress after plays breaks down in the final third, a corner, free kick, etc. Both teams are razor tight in terms of threats in these instances, although France have the slight edge in both transitions and breaking down blocks.
Scaloni hasn't played Di Maria in the last two matches, albeit through injury, and this has resulted in Acuna/Tagliafico and Molina holding the width on the sides in settled attacks, whether that be in a 3-1-6 or a 2-3-5 shape. That may overload France's last line & work, though.
Argentina overloaded Netherland's last line and Molina scored after the famed Messi through ball. But, each of the fullbacks lack 1v1 qualities when they receive possession and are very reliant on Mac Allister/E. Fernandes, Alvarez, and Messi providing dynamism in central areas.
It's not the end of the world because they create an overload vs the oppositions last line (6v5 vs Netherland's and 5v4 vs Croatia), & they also have Messi who can provide that magnetism in possession to attract markers out of position combined with space for others to run into.
And the thing about those wingbacks is they do run in behind with regularity, and that in tandem with Mac Allister's/Fernandes' creativity and Alavarez' dynamism means they do have an okay blend of penetration, creativity, and 1v1 qualities, but it's not optimal.
France, on the other hand, have Mbappé and Dembélé on the wings, two of most special 1v1 stars in the game, and guys like T. Hernandéz and Rabiot offering runs from deep to create space for Mbappé whilst providing penetration in the box for someone like Griezmann to pick out.
And they have a focal point in Giroud at the tip of that, who has proven to be a superior option to Benzema because he's the 'glue' in the attack whereas others can often roam. When France attack, they do it very well, and Argentina do to, but not quite to the same standard.
The same can be applied to transitions. Alright, Julian Alvarez and Messi alone make Argentina a formidable transitional threat, but France have Mbappé, Dembélé, Giroud as a focal point, & Griezmann behind that trio. Argentina often only have two difference makers in transition.
Now, when considering how ridiculously special Messi & Alvarez are, that can be enough (as we saw against Croatia), but France's quality combined with their strength in numbers is arguably a more devastating quartet than Argentina's duo.
It's tight, but it's an edge for France.
It's tight, but it's an edge for France.
However, it's not improbable, despite France having a marginally better settled attacking structure and transitional threat, that Argentina go 1-0 up before doing what France did to England and Morocco - sit back, hold onto their lead and relying on 'stopping' the opposition.
This can be done by using their outlets to get out, defending valiantly within the low block, and using possession effectively when they get it, & that could result in Argentina controlling proceedings, but the same also applies to France.
The game theme will go one of two ways.
The game theme will go one of two ways.
It'll stay 50/50 possession-based at 0-0, or it will become attack vs defence for large spells at 1-0 to either team because of each respective teams tendency to drop team as opposed to press high.
France would have had more of the ball vs Morocco if they didn't go 1-0 up early.
France would have had more of the ball vs Morocco if they didn't go 1-0 up early.
That's the thing here - gamestate matters, and a lot, and defending deep can become "controlled" when winning because you're in a position of strength as opposed to "hanging on" at an even or losing gamestate. That's why France and Argentina are happy to sit back when winning.
Interestingly, though, although the 1st goal in the game will be imperative for game state & determining the likely winners, it's also important to note that England, for example, drew level against France when the French were winning, so they had to come back out of their shell.
That's possible for each team too, especially considering how France attack with such quality in their last line of attack and how Argentina will overload France's last line of defence.
Listen, this game is on a knife-edge. It's very unlikely it will become one-sided.
Listen, this game is on a knife-edge. It's very unlikely it will become one-sided.
However, that in itself isn't improbable either, because Argentina-Croatia was an ultra-tight and cagey affair for 35 minutes until Messi and Alvarez exploded and Argentina went 2-0 up despite having 3 shots & less of the ball. From there, the typically passive Croatia opened up.
When you're 2-0 down, typically don't press with success, and have to chase the game, it often doesn't end well, and the game can "get away" from the losing side because they can't get the ball back quickly + they're even more vulnerable in defensive transitions vs top quality.
It's a razor tight game with the way it's set up, and although France may have a slight edge because of their superior volume of attackers & their marginal advantage in 1v1's and transitional situations, Scaloni can offer tactical solutions to further mitigate that gap.
Firstly, Scaloni implemented a well-drilled man-to-man orientated high press against Croatia's build-up from goal kicks. France may be good technically, but guys like Lloris are prone to taking too long in possession, and if Argentina man-mark all over the park, they can create.
Not only that, but I also wouldn't be surprised if Scaloni opts for a back 5. That would help negate the quality France have in settled attack, and is almost a necessity to give Argentina the best possible chance of winning, although he could do it with Di Maria dropping back.
That would be the optimal solution akin to Raphinha dropping all the way into Brazil's last line of defence to ensure they defended with 5 whilst also maintaining his 1v1 qualities and general dynamism in attack, but Scaloni hasn't done that with Di Maria yet, but he should!
Di Maria's inclusion in the right context would pip the game back in Argentina's favour making it a 50/50 affair. The team could still attack with 5/6 whilst having superior 1v1 qualities out wide whilst still defending with 5 in the last line with Di Maria tracking Hernandez.
However, that's hypothetical. What's more likely is a standard back 5, & that would give Argentina a better chance than if they opted for a back four.
There's lots to consider, & Scaloni has to tip the scales in favour of Argentina - the margins are so tight, though, regardless.
There's lots to consider, & Scaloni has to tip the scales in favour of Argentina - the margins are so tight, though, regardless.
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