On the prediction that: "50% of women will be single by 2030." ๐งต
First, this is US Census data so what we are looking at here is being unmarried. Specifically, never married.
The US Census doesn't track relationships.
The US Census doesn't track relationships.
A lot of people seem to have taken this to mean single in the more conventional sense - women alone, without a romantic partner.
The trend for men and women without romantic partners looks very different. The GSS tracks this and we can see it here:
datepsychology.com
datepsychology.com
What explains the discrepancy?
Well, it's in the report by Morgan Stanley: people are getting married later and slightly less.
People are just choosing to cohabitate and have relationships without formal marriage now.
Well, it's in the report by Morgan Stanley: people are getting married later and slightly less.
People are just choosing to cohabitate and have relationships without formal marriage now.
Worth adding that you can't just draw a straight line into the future and expect your prediction to be accurate.
Imagine: "By 3100 all women will be single."
Past trends don't inherently predict future trends.
No way to know if this will continue or immediately flatten.
Imagine: "By 3100 all women will be single."
Past trends don't inherently predict future trends.
No way to know if this will continue or immediately flatten.
A better way to phrase this might be: "if all the trends that exist right now continue, x % of women will be unmarried."
But with human behavior we really don't know. Might they? It isn't unreasonable to think some will.
Just important to be cautious and a healthily skeptical.
But with human behavior we really don't know. Might they? It isn't unreasonable to think some will.
Just important to be cautious and a healthily skeptical.
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