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A lot of people have no Idea what Malthus predicted. He predicted populations would expand to the edge of food security, then wage war during shocks to secure resources/avoid starvation.
A lot of people have no Idea what Malthus predicted. He predicted populations would expand to the edge of food security, then wage war during shocks to secure resources/avoid starvation.
2/
This accurately describes The Arab Spring, Great leap forward, WW2, WW1, the French revolution, 30 years war, and Roman Civil Wars
This is a picture of the Bengal famine the British created to secure their own food supply for the homeland.
Every great power did this in WW2
This accurately describes The Arab Spring, Great leap forward, WW2, WW1, the French revolution, 30 years war, and Roman Civil Wars
This is a picture of the Bengal famine the British created to secure their own food supply for the homeland.
Every great power did this in WW2
3/
Germany and Japan explicitly said they were waging war to Secure farmnland and resources so that their populations would not starve.
The Soviets had already been making these decisions before the war against peripheral peoples
Germany and Japan explicitly said they were waging war to Secure farmnland and resources so that their populations would not starve.
The Soviets had already been making these decisions before the war against peripheral peoples
4/
The traditional narrative around Malthus is that modern technology and agricultural advancements make such events impossible... This could not be farther from the truth they make them MORE LIKELY.
The traditional narrative around Malthus is that modern technology and agricultural advancements make such events impossible... This could not be farther from the truth they make them MORE LIKELY.
5/
In pre-modern societies low level conflict and violent status competition caps population growth...
In modern societies population can double, triple or quadruple, without any immediate increased population strain... Until international markets destabilize.
In pre-modern societies low level conflict and violent status competition caps population growth...
In modern societies population can double, triple or quadruple, without any immediate increased population strain... Until international markets destabilize.
6/
As soon as you have a large enough war or international crisis countries that have spent decades growing in population are thrust back onto the population limits their geography can naturally sustain.
(Libyan civil war)
As soon as you have a large enough war or international crisis countries that have spent decades growing in population are thrust back onto the population limits their geography can naturally sustain.
(Libyan civil war)
7/
The last minor food shock was 2013 with the Arab Spring. close to a dozen nations experienced regime change or civil war.
As soon as resources started getting scarce the underlying sectarian divides took on a lethal importance.
(Syria)
The last minor food shock was 2013 with the Arab Spring. close to a dozen nations experienced regime change or civil war.
As soon as resources started getting scarce the underlying sectarian divides took on a lethal importance.
(Syria)
8/
Not only was Malthus right about populations natural expanding to their geographical limits, Malthusian crises are now vastly more common, with 4+ since 1900, when before you'd go centuries between them.
(Monument to the Irish Famine)
Not only was Malthus right about populations natural expanding to their geographical limits, Malthusian crises are now vastly more common, with 4+ since 1900, when before you'd go centuries between them.
(Monument to the Irish Famine)
9/
This brings us to the present. Between the massive supply chain disruptions of Covid lockdowns and the war in Ukraine shredding world Wheat and Fertilizer exports, we're facing a death spiral of lower yields, disruptions, and instability
(ships waiting off the port of LA)
This brings us to the present. Between the massive supply chain disruptions of Covid lockdowns and the war in Ukraine shredding world Wheat and Fertilizer exports, we're facing a death spiral of lower yields, disruptions, and instability
(ships waiting off the port of LA)
10/
westerners may see food prices double or triple in a rough scenario... but they're safe, western countries are net exporters and their population is rich enough to win out in any international bidding war.
Though diets might get more boring
westerners may see food prices double or triple in a rough scenario... but they're safe, western countries are net exporters and their population is rich enough to win out in any international bidding war.
Though diets might get more boring
11/
Dense poor countries however:
Nigeria, Egypt, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the northern parts of sub-saharan Africa, perhaps even China or Indonesia
They're already into the millions more than their geography can sustain... and now they have to farm without fertilizer
Dense poor countries however:
Nigeria, Egypt, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the northern parts of sub-saharan Africa, perhaps even China or Indonesia
They're already into the millions more than their geography can sustain... and now they have to farm without fertilizer
2/
We're looking at the Arab spring x10.
In western countries we've seen Truckers, Farmers, and the working class do increasingly disruptive protests...
But in Sri Lanka, Ecuador, Iran, Peru, Lebanon, Indonesia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa we're already seeing it.
We're looking at the Arab spring x10.
In western countries we've seen Truckers, Farmers, and the working class do increasingly disruptive protests...
But in Sri Lanka, Ecuador, Iran, Peru, Lebanon, Indonesia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa we're already seeing it.
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