@co_hurricane Yes, correct.
@co_hurricane Here is the 50% DFT function shown versus the actuarial stats
Covid immediate PFE mu is ~12 weeks
Covid longer term PFE mu is 208 weeks
You can see that the 50% 130-week DFT (50% of the saddle of the blue curve) -linear calc is both appropriate and (perhaps 'too') conservative.
Covid immediate PFE mu is ~12 weeks
Covid longer term PFE mu is 208 weeks
You can see that the 50% 130-week DFT (50% of the saddle of the blue curve) -linear calc is both appropriate and (perhaps 'too') conservative.
@co_hurricane The first blue dip is dry tinder. The second milder blue dip is healthy individual death pull-forwards. They both arrive under separate functions.
@co_hurricane As you can see, my curve is simplistic, and appropriate for a short time frame analysis (what we've done to date). But when adjudicating the impact of vaccines, I may need to switch to the compound function (blue line), so as to make nations comparable to each other.
@co_hurricane Analysts ignoring this blue line function, is precisely why Sweden appears to be confusing.
@co_hurricane Here is the revised version of the DFT-PFE chart, using the real data from Cancer and SADS Wonder charting...
Shows both the strength as well as the weakness of my 50% DFT-linear method. @ProfessorAkston
But it marries Dry Tinder and PFE into a single argument.
Shows both the strength as well as the weakness of my 50% DFT-linear method. @ProfessorAkston
But it marries Dry Tinder and PFE into a single argument.
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