China’s decision to not just abandon zero COVID but to embrace an extreme “let it rip” policy is a catastrophe for both the Chinese people and the world. It will leave millions dead or disabled, badly damage the global economy, and may spawn dangerous new coronavirus variants. 🧵
The scale of the disaster is hard to imagine. There are an estimated 1,000,000 new infections and 5,000 deaths each day.
Not that you'd know this from the official statistics, which are no longer reported daily. The official death toll stands at 5,242.
dw.com
Not that you'd know this from the official statistics, which are no longer reported daily. The official death toll stands at 5,242.
dw.com
The huge number of infections is reflected in the fact that China is exporting COVID-19 cases again. And not just exporting a few, either.
Crematoriums are overloaded with the dead.
"“We have to do this about 200 times a day now,” said one funeral worker. “We are so busy we don’t even have time to eat. This has been the case since the opening up. Before it was around 30-50 a day.”"
reuters.com
"“We have to do this about 200 times a day now,” said one funeral worker. “We are so busy we don’t even have time to eat. This has been the case since the opening up. Before it was around 30-50 a day.”"
reuters.com
Modelling by The Economist predicts 1.5 million deaths in China.
economist.com
economist.com
The final death toll may well be higher, because mortality from COVID-19 rises when hospitals are overloaded.
At the beginning of the pandemic, mortality in Wuhan was estimated to be 3 times higher than in the rest of Hubei province.
At the beginning of the pandemic, mortality in Wuhan was estimated to be 3 times higher than in the rest of Hubei province.
And hospitals are overloaded & healthcare workers ill.
"One nurse in the western city of Xian said 45 of 51 nurses in her department and all staff in the emergency department had caught the virus ... they had been told to work even if they tested positive"
abc.net.au
"One nurse in the western city of Xian said 45 of 51 nurses in her department and all staff in the emergency department had caught the virus ... they had been told to work even if they tested positive"
abc.net.au
Economic activity has fallen off a cliff. People can't work if they're sick.
"The boss of a printed circuit board factory in the eastern province of Shandong said only 20 per cent of staff came to work on Friday, the rest calling in sick with Covid."
ft.com
"The boss of a printed circuit board factory in the eastern province of Shandong said only 20 per cent of staff came to work on Friday, the rest calling in sick with Covid."
ft.com
It's worth remembering just how much the world is dependent on Chinese manufacturing. Among other things, China produces about half of the world's supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients - the raw ingredients for the medications we take for granted.
I've criticised China's draconian approach to zero COVID. Democratic Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, or New Zealand were better models. But China's decision to pursue elimination was the right one.
People who clamoured for zero COVID to end are in for a very rude awakening.
People who clamoured for zero COVID to end are in for a very rude awakening.
I really feel for the Chinese people, who've been conned into believing that SARS-CoV-2 is now a "mild" virus, akin to the common cold. Many seem to think they'll get it once, and then everything will go back to normal. The reality is that endless waves & reinfections await them.
You can't expect 1.4 billion people - nearly one-fifth of the Earth's human population - to be infected and not cook up a few new variants.
And there are threats to consider beyond the relatively straightforward variants of SARS-CoV-2 that we’ve experienced to date. There's the possibility of rare, but serious recombination events involving other viruses.
MERS is unlikely in China, but...
MERS is unlikely in China, but...
China is home to many other SARS-related viruses. Occasionally these cross the species barrier and infect humans, but without onward transmission.
As @georgimarinov points out, the likelihood of further transmission just got a boost.
As @georgimarinov points out, the likelihood of further transmission just got a boost.
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