“Map" for the trading jungle - Grant Noble
There r 1000s of trading methods on the Mkt,but many r worthless & most duplicate better methods. U need a MAP to:
1. Minimize the time & money u spend
2. Analyze & compare valid methods
3. Personalize what u find to fit yr own A/c
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There r 1000s of trading methods on the Mkt,but many r worthless & most duplicate better methods. U need a MAP to:
1. Minimize the time & money u spend
2. Analyze & compare valid methods
3. Personalize what u find to fit yr own A/c
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The quickest way to minimize research is to avoid worthless methods in the 1st place. Study "track records." Do they contain only low volume futures or futures from a single complex? Is the data bad? Does it contain non-trending as well as trending periods? It's easy to
The quickest way to minimize research is to avoid worthless methods in the 1st place. Study "track records." Do they contain only low volume futures or futures from a single complex? Is the data bad? Does it contain non-trending as well as trending periods? It's easy to
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“optimize" a "system" to fit computer data.
Another rule is buy the book & forget the expensive seminar. There are only 3 reasons why any1 would let a valid technique go to competitors: 1) they're dead and therefore don't care; 2) they're motivated by a sincere desire to
“optimize" a "system" to fit computer data.
Another rule is buy the book & forget the expensive seminar. There are only 3 reasons why any1 would let a valid technique go to competitors: 1) they're dead and therefore don't care; 2) they're motivated by a sincere desire to
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teach others or, 3) they're egomaniacs who love publicity. In all these cases, a book will serve the ends of science, ego, etc. better than "exclusive" seminars. The greatest problem in minimizing work is the duplicate method. Most of the expensive "systems" are simple
teach others or, 3) they're egomaniacs who love publicity. In all these cases, a book will serve the ends of science, ego, etc. better than "exclusive" seminars. The greatest problem in minimizing work is the duplicate method. Most of the expensive "systems" are simple
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rehashes of older methods. 99% of trading methods can be put into 3 main theories with 12 subsets:
A. Market Equilibrium ("Rubberband”): Like a rubberband, the market is always returning to a pre-determined point after being stretched by outside forces.
rehashes of older methods. 99% of trading methods can be put into 3 main theories with 12 subsets:
A. Market Equilibrium ("Rubberband”): Like a rubberband, the market is always returning to a pre-determined point after being stretched by outside forces.
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Subsets include:
1. Overbought/Oversold Indicators:Everything from oscillators like RSI to Contrary Opinion
2. Number Theory:Fibonacci sequences, "Gann" numbers.
3. Retracements: Beyond chart retracements to numeric retracements, waves, golden mean
4. Gaps: Open & Closing
Subsets include:
1. Overbought/Oversold Indicators:Everything from oscillators like RSI to Contrary Opinion
2. Number Theory:Fibonacci sequences, "Gann" numbers.
3. Retracements: Beyond chart retracements to numeric retracements, waves, golden mean
4. Gaps: Open & Closing
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gaps, Hi/Low gaps & other "gaps" not found on a chart
B. Classical ("Charting"):
5. Trends: Regression Analysis, Moving Averages & other "trend" following methods
6. Chart Formations; Point & figure, "head & shoulders" & other formations beloved of chartists.
gaps, Hi/Low gaps & other "gaps" not found on a chart
B. Classical ("Charting"):
5. Trends: Regression Analysis, Moving Averages & other "trend" following methods
6. Chart Formations; Point & figure, "head & shoulders" & other formations beloved of chartists.
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7. Trend Lines; Gann angles, Reverse Wave, Pivot Point
8. Cycles; As short as the 10:30 break, as long as the Kondratieff Wave
C. Supply/Demand ("Fundamentals") is more than looking at crop projections:
9. Spreads; Between months, markets & cash versus futures.
7. Trend Lines; Gann angles, Reverse Wave, Pivot Point
8. Cycles; As short as the 10:30 break, as long as the Kondratieff Wave
C. Supply/Demand ("Fundamentals") is more than looking at crop projections:
9. Spreads; Between months, markets & cash versus futures.
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10. Flow of Funds:Volume & Open Interest
11. Seasonals: In everything from the weather to the economy
12. Reports:The whole psychology of expectation versus reality, what happens to "weak hands" before reports, which reports can be ignored
10. Flow of Funds:Volume & Open Interest
11. Seasonals: In everything from the weather to the economy
12. Reports:The whole psychology of expectation versus reality, what happens to "weak hands" before reports, which reports can be ignored
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Most experts push Theory A, most public advisors use Theory B, but most floor traders rely on Theory C
In the never-never world of "systems," every1 has all the money they need to buy any software, trade 27 commodities at once, & hire an assistant to keep it all straight.
Most experts push Theory A, most public advisors use Theory B, but most floor traders rely on Theory C
In the never-never world of "systems," every1 has all the money they need to buy any software, trade 27 commodities at once, & hire an assistant to keep it all straight.
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For the rest of us mortals, here are several things to remember:
1. Trading is always a struggle for margin. Every buck spent on fancy computers, expensive seminars, etc is 1 less u can use to ride out losses & test ideas
2. Try "mini-contracts" before you trade bigger
For the rest of us mortals, here are several things to remember:
1. Trading is always a struggle for margin. Every buck spent on fancy computers, expensive seminars, etc is 1 less u can use to ride out losses & test ideas
2. Try "mini-contracts" before you trade bigger
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contracts. Above all, don't experiment with money from strangers,it can come back to hurt you
3. Many "systems" that look good on paper come to grief because of "slippage" & high commissions. A $ spent on research & testing can save 1000s in "real time" trading
contracts. Above all, don't experiment with money from strangers,it can come back to hurt you
3. Many "systems" that look good on paper come to grief because of "slippage" & high commissions. A $ spent on research & testing can save 1000s in "real time" trading
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4. Making money consistently is not for amateurs. So many doctors, engineers, etc. think they can win big in their spare time
To make big money in futures, U must at some time make a full-time commitment
A "MAP" may not seem as exciting as a "sure-fire system," but
4. Making money consistently is not for amateurs. So many doctors, engineers, etc. think they can win big in their spare time
To make big money in futures, U must at some time make a full-time commitment
A "MAP" may not seem as exciting as a "sure-fire system," but
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using 1 is the major difference between the 90% who lose & the 10% who win. The key to success in futures is using the right method at the right time for the right contract. That's why so many "market geniuses" die broke. Their ideas are not invalid,
using 1 is the major difference between the 90% who lose & the 10% who win. The key to success in futures is using the right method at the right time for the right contract. That's why so many "market geniuses" die broke. Their ideas are not invalid,
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but they are never able to organize them into a coherent trading system. They leave their profits to lesser men with more of the discipline and organization needed to win. And winning is the name of the game; not looking "smart" at some seminar.
but they are never able to organize them into a coherent trading system. They leave their profits to lesser men with more of the discipline and organization needed to win. And winning is the name of the game; not looking "smart" at some seminar.
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