Interviewed Ambassador Vijay Gokhale recently
- India's former Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to China
- One of ๐ฎ๐ณ's finest ๐จ๐ณ watchers with 30+ years exp.
We spoke about:
- Whether ๐จ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ณ border is intractable
- How ๐จ๐ณ sees ๐ฎ๐ณ
- Future of ๐ฎ๐ณ๐จ๐ณ ties
5 key takeaways๐งต๐(1/11)
- India's former Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to China
- One of ๐ฎ๐ณ's finest ๐จ๐ณ watchers with 30+ years exp.
We spoke about:
- Whether ๐จ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ณ border is intractable
- How ๐จ๐ณ sees ๐ฎ๐ณ
- Future of ๐ฎ๐ณ๐จ๐ณ ties
5 key takeaways๐งต๐(1/11)
(2/11)
Takeaway 1: India & China are now in a state of "armed co-existence" across the LAC
-Border standoff since summer 2020, and Galwan clashes in June that year, have created an "active LAC"
-While there has been limited disengagement, no decrease in ๐จ๐ณ regular troops
Takeaway 1: India & China are now in a state of "armed co-existence" across the LAC
-Border standoff since summer 2020, and Galwan clashes in June that year, have created an "active LAC"
-While there has been limited disengagement, no decrease in ๐จ๐ณ regular troops
(3/11)
Takeaway 2: How things changed on the border
-Amb. Gokhale tells me that ๐ฎ๐ณ&๐จ๐ณ made positive steps to resolve crisis between 1990 - 2005
-1993 & '96 border agreements, 2005 agreement on guiding principles to resolve border
BUT
Things began to change post 2006
Takeaway 2: How things changed on the border
-Amb. Gokhale tells me that ๐ฎ๐ณ&๐จ๐ณ made positive steps to resolve crisis between 1990 - 2005
-1993 & '96 border agreements, 2005 agreement on guiding principles to resolve border
BUT
Things began to change post 2006
(4/11)
After 2006:
-China began issuing stapled visas to ๐ฎ๐ณ citizens from J&K and Arunachal Pradesh
-Denied visa to Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. Jaswal who had command over J&K
-Referred to Arunachal as "South Tibet"
After 2006:
-China began issuing stapled visas to ๐ฎ๐ณ citizens from J&K and Arunachal Pradesh
-Denied visa to Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. Jaswal who had command over J&K
-Referred to Arunachal as "South Tibet"
(5/11)
What changed?
Amb. Gokhale argues that ๐จ๐ณ feels comfortable when there's a balance of power
After 1990, ๐จ๐ณ felt threatened since Soviet Union had collapsed & US was sole superpower
In an effort to reduce threats, ๐จ๐ณ worked w.๐ฎ๐ณ on border
What changed?
Amb. Gokhale argues that ๐จ๐ณ feels comfortable when there's a balance of power
After 1990, ๐จ๐ณ felt threatened since Soviet Union had collapsed & US was sole superpower
In an effort to reduce threats, ๐จ๐ณ worked w.๐ฎ๐ณ on border
(6/11)
Gokhale: ๐จ๐ณ did just enough to ensure that there was peace without making real concessions
What changed?
-Post 2008 crisis, ๐จ๐ณ felt US was in decline so reduced threat
- ๐จ๐ณ had grown stronger than ๐ฎ๐ณ economically & militarily
Meaning:๐จ๐ณ no longer needed to settle border
Gokhale: ๐จ๐ณ did just enough to ensure that there was peace without making real concessions
What changed?
-Post 2008 crisis, ๐จ๐ณ felt US was in decline so reduced threat
- ๐จ๐ณ had grown stronger than ๐ฎ๐ณ economically & militarily
Meaning:๐จ๐ณ no longer needed to settle border
(7/11)
Takeaway 3: Despite Galwan, ๐ฎ๐ณ๐จ๐ณ border dispute not unsolvable
-Political mechanism through Special Reps exists
-Historical data exchange b/w both side
-Roadmap to settling boundary laid down in 2005 Agreement
What we need: Mutual trust which๐จ๐ณ will need to rebuild
Takeaway 3: Despite Galwan, ๐ฎ๐ณ๐จ๐ณ border dispute not unsolvable
-Political mechanism through Special Reps exists
-Historical data exchange b/w both side
-Roadmap to settling boundary laid down in 2005 Agreement
What we need: Mutual trust which๐จ๐ณ will need to rebuild
(8/11)
Takeaway 4: What ๐จ๐ณ needs to do to begin rebuilding trust
- Recognise that the boundary is a central part of ties; not small localised issue as ๐จ๐ณ likes to say
- Address massive trade deficit b/w ๐ฎ๐ณ &๐จ๐ณ
- Accept ๐ฎ๐ณ's Indo-Pacific concept & not dismiss Indo-Pac as US plot
Takeaway 4: What ๐จ๐ณ needs to do to begin rebuilding trust
- Recognise that the boundary is a central part of ties; not small localised issue as ๐จ๐ณ likes to say
- Address massive trade deficit b/w ๐ฎ๐ณ &๐จ๐ณ
- Accept ๐ฎ๐ณ's Indo-Pacific concept & not dismiss Indo-Pac as US plot
(9/11)
That last point deserves some explanation
Amb. Gokhale argues that ๐จ๐ณ sees "Indo-Pacific" as a construct used by US to contain ๐จ๐ณ
Beijing also believes "naive" ๐ฎ๐ณ is signing up to the Indo-Pac because of US pressure
๐จ๐ณ doesn't see ๐ฎ๐ณ as independent pwr but as US lackey
That last point deserves some explanation
Amb. Gokhale argues that ๐จ๐ณ sees "Indo-Pacific" as a construct used by US to contain ๐จ๐ณ
Beijing also believes "naive" ๐ฎ๐ณ is signing up to the Indo-Pac because of US pressure
๐จ๐ณ doesn't see ๐ฎ๐ณ as independent pwr but as US lackey
(10/11) Takeaway 5: ๐ฎ๐ณ&๐จ๐ณ are entering into "decade of uncertainty"
-๐จ๐ณ will keep edge over ๐ฎ๐ณ nxt decade
BUT
-๐จ๐ณ's growth slowing while ๐ฎ๐ณ's growth is picking up. Gap will narrow & ๐จ๐ณ may need to compromise again w. stronger ๐ฎ๐ณ
Delhi will need to be vigilant militarily
-๐จ๐ณ will keep edge over ๐ฎ๐ณ nxt decade
BUT
-๐จ๐ณ's growth slowing while ๐ฎ๐ณ's growth is picking up. Gap will narrow & ๐จ๐ณ may need to compromise again w. stronger ๐ฎ๐ณ
Delhi will need to be vigilant militarily
(11/11) Grateful to @VGokhale59 for his time and his thoughts on Sino-Indian relations
His books are:
1. Tiananmen: Making of a Protest
2. After Tiananmen: The Rise of China
3. The Long Game: How China negotiates with India
All three are well worth a read & several re-reads
His books are:
1. Tiananmen: Making of a Protest
2. After Tiananmen: The Rise of China
3. The Long Game: How China negotiates with India
All three are well worth a read & several re-reads
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