This entire market will need a lot of cleaning up in order to restore into a full blown bull market.
The QE bid is gone for now.
The only way it comes back is a CPI under 2.5 and a stronger recession led by unemployment .
The QE bid is gone for now.
The only way it comes back is a CPI under 2.5 and a stronger recession led by unemployment .
Thus my base case remains a sideways market until about Q3-Q4 2023.
Any outsized move down in my view would be led by a true recessionary event which would drastically increase the odds of QE or stimulus in general.
Thus semi soft landing = sideways market with chop.
Any outsized move down in my view would be led by a true recessionary event which would drastically increase the odds of QE or stimulus in general.
Thus semi soft landing = sideways market with chop.
Now the business I am investing in are at multi decade lows consistently beating earnings and compressing valuation multiples.
The close future looks blurry, however upon the through we will see the natural growth play an increasing role.
The close future looks blurry, however upon the through we will see the natural growth play an increasing role.
I am confident about the long term and thus external factors together with the lowest valuations in 20y+ look like an attractive opportunity to own part of the businesses I admire.
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