Cosmic Penguin
Cosmic Penguin

@Cosmic_Penguin

181 Tweets 8 reads Feb 23, 2023
2023 1st Quarter Chinese Spaceflight News, A Thread:
So, welcome to 2023, where I may start losing track of whatever going to orbit & beyond due to the sheer no. of things going up. I mean, @SpaceX have foreseen the need of 100 launches this year, who's not to tell that the Chinese needs that many as well? 😏
But first, here's the 64 Chinese rockets that (tried to) head to orbit in 2022. Note the grayed out ones that failed (Hyperbola-1 May 13, Zhuque-2 Dec. 14) & the "if you leak secrets you will get killed" billboard in JSLC replacing a certain spaceplane:
We don't know what's going to be the 1st Chinese launch of the year yet. One possibility is this Long March 7A out of Wenchang, apparently NET January 9, with something called Shijian 23:
Now, someone found this blurry "postmark" for "launch day mail covers" of this launch, and not only it shows SJ-23, it shows the satellite as what seems to be a next-generation High-throughput test satellite (HTS).
China did have some experimental communication satellites launched in the past for civilian uses, notably SJ-13 which was an earlier HTS test satellite. Maybe this will be a new one:
We'll have to see if this is really the 1st launch by the Chinese though, the Jan. 9 date is not yet confirmed and there are others in the lane that might be ahead, like Galactic Energy's 5th Ceres-1 launch:
This is likely a share-ride, with satellites like this:
...and this:
Rolling back a bit with this video showing all 62 successful Chinese launches of 2022:
youtube.com
Good Question.
They could be sniffing up grass on the Far Side of the Moon and at southern Utopia Planitia, for all we know...
Seriously Chang'e 4 & Tianwen 1 desperately needs a stable, concise mission update, preferably weekly. Something like this: mars.nasa.gov / mars.nasa.gov
Actually Yutu-2 had one (space.bilibili.com) but update has stopped since March last year...
For Yutu-2 there is a chance that operations were limited for most of 2022 due to the relay sat Queqiao having issues, but it should have been back on the move last September and there hasn't been much update since. Well, uh...
As for Zhurong, it entered sleep mode for winter (remember it uses solar panels) on May 18 & was supposed to wake up around December, but that seems haven't happened yet.
We haven't got an orbiter news update since its 2nd anniversary of launch last July:
“Huh @blueorigin? You are stuck with just developing one rocket engine? The good old BE-4?
Too simple, sometimes naive! We are doing NINE at once!”
(this reminds me I might need to check on status of various new Chinese rocket engines in development, a difficult task given almost all official reports don’t use model numbers)
I’m still baffled how their business plans work, but whatever:
LOL, it did move by 150+ m!
Wake me up when they get the demand for 10, no 5 launches per year 🥱
2023 is going to be a year w/ less spotlight flagship missions for Chinese spaceflight (Xuntian space telescope launch only one penciled & probably slipping). But it will still be full of surprises, including checking out on what the heck LM-6C really is!
Who? Why? When? How? The number of Chinese small sat launcher start-ups that survives to such a late stage (this one, dubious as its reputation seems to be some years ago while using hybrid motors, seems now on par w/ @orbexspace) never ceases to amaze me.
Air space closure notices for the Wenchang LM-7A launch has been filed for what looks like to be a standard GTO launch of maybe Shijian 23 NET January 8-9, 21:00 - 03:00 UTC.
And, well, it looks like (per air space closures) Galactic Energy’s 5th Ceres 1 launch from Jiuquan may also end up on January 9 as well, ~05:15 UTC. They surely are making headway in the domestic market & a 5/5 score will make the advantage highly secure.
Another NOTAM popped up and has refined this one's launch window to 21:50 - 01:15 UTC, January 8-9 - the T-0 is probably ~23:00 UTC on the 8th.
And the rocket is out at the pad:
Sorry Madam, I have to make you even more depressed. There's another one out of Jiuquan on January 13, ~07:15 UTC, and...uh...this could be quite something.
Yeah. You know...there's a Chinese spaceplane 600 km above us since last August?
Well, we *might* see 2 of them soon.
Zones indicate a launch into a 4x degrees inc. orbit (yellow) & looks so similar to those used for the secretive LM-2F launch in August 2022 (red, 50 deg. inc.) that I just can't help but think it's another! What, where, why, how!?
(orange zone from SZ-15 launch for comparison)
IF, IF this is really what I think of, the Chinese can proclaim that they are the 1st nation to field more than 1 spaceplane in orbit at the same time. That MIGHT be quite something.
Or it could still be a random LM-2C/D launch w/ whatever. 2 rectangles are all I have after all.
Close up of LM-7A during roll-out:
m.weibo.cn
Wait...wait, ANOTHER FLYING!? Oh yes, more "rectangles" have been filed showing a late night launch from Xichang on January 13 ~18:20 UTC. Unfortunately even the rocket involved is in doubt.
The most reasonable choice is LM-3B w/ ChinaSat 26, however...
...the comsat could also be ChinaSat 6E. But it might not even be the LM-3B after all, 'cause 1 source claims it's LM-2C w/ YZ-1 upper stage! That would be weird, but there's a small comsat for APT Satelllite of HK, APStar 6E, launching this year so...
spacenews.com
But wait! There's One More Launch (TM)! *Another one*, this time from Taiyuan, was filed for January 15 ~03:20 UTC. It looks like a LM-2D (?) launch to SSO & it might be w/ these Jilin-1 EO sats.
*5* Chinese launches planned Jan. 8-15. I'm a bit dizzy...
Unfortunately on closer inspection it does seems the Jan. 13 Xichang launch listed above is NOT for LM-3B (2nd zone too close down-range). Probably LM-2C/D? Well this could be a headache...
It’s a few hours till the 1st Chinese launch of the year & it looks like there are some people waiting at Wenchang for the LM-7A launch, which seems to be closer to 22:00 UTC now.
It’s raining hard at the launch site now though…
(@Nextlaunch can you check what stream this is?)
Nevermind, the stream is here:
live.bilibili.com
Very low cloud deck for now.
Probably close to T-0 but no-one knows when that is:
Despite constant drizzling (people on the stream are complaining their lenses are soaked) it does seems LM-7A is GO for launch; some umbilical arms are seen to have disconnected already.
Liftoff has occurred at 22:00 UTC under some heavy rain!
As you can see, those on site really do complain that they couldn’t really have seen much in the soup of rain…
One thing about watching these launches on site is that people have to “guess n’ scramble” because they don’t know the T-0! I heard people saying “launching at 6:05 am (22:05 UTC)” on the stream, then had to scramble when they realise it’s T-1.
Yeah, I doubt it would have launched if this is the Cape or Kourou…
(m.weibo.cn)
Launch success has been confirmed for this 22:00 UTC launch, besides Shijian 23 as expected, there are also 2 “thingy” on board called Shiyan 22A/B.
CASC says SJ-23 is the heaviest payload their “medium lift LVs” has ever launched, so perhaps somewhere over 6 tonnes to GTO?
I do wonder how long will it take for the Long March 3 (A/B/C) to be retired now that their replacement is now fully available.
OK, probably not quite yet, as CALT just reported they can produced 4-6 LM-7As per year right now, and 8-10 by 2025. That might not be enough to replace all the LM-3 series demands out there.
The next Chinese launch is BTW in (checks watch) less than 6 hours from now.
Hmm, SAST built SJ-23 so maybe this is NOT a comsat after all? They never built communication satellites (but they do built quite a few interesting GEO satellites, wink wink).
mp.weixin.qq.com
It was absolutely pouring when it was launched, here’s another view:
Official reports says that a new 5.2 m diameter fairing is being developed for the LM-7A - what’s new is that this might require enlarging the 3rd stage as well (like the Delta IV). This is expected, in fact perhaps very late, for a EELV Medium+ class rocket.
Lens soaked in rain:
2nd Chinese launch of the day coming up in less than 30 minutes:
And here it is, the bane of Pegasus & Falcon 1 & every other private LSP built launch vehicle in the world, till now: a 5/5 launch record for its first 5 launches.
This Ceres-1 has successfully launched 5 satellites to SSO at 05:04 UTC.
It’s a clear day on this other side of China:
I’m still checking on the details but these are the 5 payloads:
Well, that’s quite a lot, but who says they can’t be the @RocketLab of the PRC? (at least for the access-to-space part)
R O A D M O B I L E L A U N C H E R
Meanwhile a bit earlier today, pad cameras:
Uh, LOL, that would require some superpower to fuel the demand for so many rockets LMAO.
Even more views of the LM-7A launch yesterday:
Just a note that this Xichang launch has moved UP by a day to January 12 ~18:20 UTC.
There have been only 2 Chinese launches so far into 2023 but there are already some pretty cool photos/videos already:
m.weibo.cn
Ceres-1 upper stage and spacecraft separation from Monday’s launch:
mp.weixin.qq.com
I’m still mind blown that this company is essentially building:
* a Vega-Heavy w/ Antares’ lift power
* a Vega-C class RP-1 rocket
* a reusable Falcon 9 v1.0 w/ Heavy option
* a reusable sounding rocket
* a New Shepard but w/ Dragon
At The Same Time.
Those landing legs…
Those thruster pods:
Here’s a model of the SLS Block I class “LM-5G” (or whatever it’s going to be called) w/ fairing, which is gonna to be > 6 meters in diameter.
*wink* Chinese human lunar lander launcher? *wink*
m.weibo.cn
The obvious choice is with the Xuntian space telescope, but in the case that it has already slipped beyond 2023, I know of at least 1 suitable option for the payload.
Hint: I have talked about it before, but in the context of launching on a standard LM-5 😉
I guess it's time for secret Long March 5 launches. Whoppeee.
So it DOES seems the mysterious launch from Xichang in about 1.5 hours is the LM-2C w/ upper stage for APStar-6E. This is one of few very small (1.3 tonnes) GEO comsat projects being built, fully using electric thrusters too.
Liftoff confirmed per shaking on site.
As it turns out, it IS APStar-6E, & it seems the “transfer stage” is counted as part of the payload & not the YZ series we have thought of.
The 18:10 UTC launch of LM-2C was successful.
Video:
This must be the lightest dedicated GEO comsat launch anywhere in this world for a very long time.
So while the comsat itself is light, the transfer stage isn’t and the total mass lifted is 4.3 tonnes, a new record for the 40+ years old LM-2C! The payload adapter was redesigned to shave 30% mass for this launch.
m.weibo.cn
Another video:
Satellite and transfer stage:
The next Chinese launch is < 10 hours away and I’m even more clueless on that one…
More satellite testing photos:
The tweet above revises up the satellite mass to 2.09 t, putting it in same class as @BoeingSpace’s 702SP series.
BTW the transfer stage reminds me of the obscure Integrated Apogee Boost Stage IABS, which served exactly 1 family of GEO (military) comsats: en.wikipedia.org
More photos:
Post-launch sprinkling:
The new transfer stage for DFH-3E bus GEO communication satellites:
m.weibo.cn
And here comes that launch that I have wondered for days in about 30 minutes. Another Chinese secret spaceplane? Batch of “Chinese Starlink” test sats on LM-2F? Random sat to 4x deg. LEO on LM-2C/D? We should know soon.
While we wait, please enjoy this (apparently official) cute Long March 5: 😉
m.weibo.cn
And…well… “random sat” wins this round. 🤷‍♀️
Turns out it’s a certain *Yaogan 37* launching on a *LM-2D* at 07:00 UTC.
Also previous reports of Shiyan-22A/B flying out of Wenchang turns out to be erroneous, because they ended up on this launch instead.
God knows what SAST-built YG-37 does, but SY-22 (A by SAST, B by CAS) seems to be for civilian uses, SY-22A given a generic optical Earth observation sat description while things like fog and water pollution detection were reported as uses for SY-22B.
The Long March 2C/D series have such a high fly rate for LEO payloads that their replacement are still seldom used. Another one is supposed to fly from Taiyuan 2 days from now, probably w/ a bunch of commercial payloads.
Drone view and mission logo:
It turns out that private company MINOSPACE made the satellite bus for CAS for SY-22B, a rather unusual arrangement.
On the rocket side, the LM-2D is expected to have another busy year w/ “at least 13” launches.
LMAO I believe the company has built a few small sats & that’s it? Not even having anything to do w/ LVs?
This one smells really fishy & it HAS to use my city as proxy LOL.
(I’ve thought of this being a proxy move for Chinese gov., but the site’s no good compared w/ Wenchang)
(I of course assumes even the proxy move is really related to aerospace; in reality it’s more likely another case of buying an aircraft carrier to built a casino (wink))
Regarding this launch tomorrow, it seems that in addition to these Jilin-1 satellites, there are also Qilu 2 & 3, 2 optical EO sats for Shandong Province's Industrial Technology Research Institute on board.
#msg2448762" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">forum.nasaspaceflight.com
OK the list above is correct, with even more flying at the same time:
🤨🤔
Looks like those people at Shandong Province really tried to get a webcast out for this launch in 8 hours’ time, but it looks like the plan was just denied and this post deleted. Alas, text only updates then. 😂
And this 5th Chinese launch within a week should be underway now.
And...it's another one that reaches orbit, the actual payload list comes to 14 satellites so it will take a while to sort this out, but TL;DR this LM-2D has successfully reached orbit after a 03:14 UTC liftoff.
It’s pretty chilly in TSLC for this 5th Chinese launch of the year to orbit in just over 6 days:
Looks like Qilu-2 & 3 are the main payloads and so Shandong Province's local government has had their logos prominently shown.
Also note the interesting mission logo with the payload arrangements:
Payload list for reference:
Well then. At least 7 launches planned by CASIC this year eh?
Better list of payloads from today's LM-2D launch, from CGWIC:
More photos of the LM-2C/APStar-6E launch 2 days ago:
R T F S
(Return To Farmhouse Site)
(LM-2C 1st stage parts from APStar-6E launch out of Xichang)
Video from several minutes before the above stage crashed:
Plans for the next Chinese lunar sample return mission, on the Far Side:
Uh, I now remember why I’m so skeptical of this company.
As late as *Dec. 2020* they were still firing new 30t thrust rocket engines using monopropellant fuel a la NOFBX. Then they made a U-Turn to RP-1/LOX & came up w/ sth bigger than Terran-1, ready to pad, in < 2 years!? 🙄🫢
Here’s @AJ_FI’s article on them when they were still bullish on mono-propellant rockets, from *April 2020*. spacenews.com
Now they are building *staged combustion* RP-1 engines. Hmm. 🤫
On Chinese social media people thought they might have taken existing engines…
…perhaps LM-7 2nd stage’s YF-115, or the new expander bleed YF-102 (en.wikipedia.org ). But the evidence is lacking.
Anyway 2 years from new rocket plans to ready for launch feels so unreal - everyone from @SpaceX to @relativityspace would scream at such quick progress.
I think @ablspacesystems will cry looking at this LOL
Good reference material for those trying to draw/build models of the CSS:
youtube.com
Oof, though it says ion thrusters on the main satellite means no lifetime loss is expected.
CASC has a much more detailed plan for 2023 announced yesterday, of which this is part of it - more of it later today.
So here’s the plans from the center of Beijing about planned Chinese spaceflight activities in 2023 as listed here:
* “Close to 70 launches” (+) planned with 200+ spacecraft onboard.
(+) Only includes CASC rockets so CASIC KZ series & all those private LSPs are not included, which would be another dozen+
(screams internally at tracking them all w/ much less info than SpaceX launch trackers)
* As noted above, only Tianzhou 6 will launch to the CSS this year as more cargo upmass on each S/C means Tianzhou can now fly to CSS about once in 8 months vs 6 right now.
* Shenzhou 16 & 17 to fly this year, 15 & 16 to come back.
* 3 new Beidou navigation satellites to launch in 2023 as spares
* Main civilian comsats launching this year: ChinaSat 26, ChinaSat 6E
* Fengyun 3F & G polar weather sats to launch this year
* New ocean color observation sat (I believe it’s = Haiyang 3A)
* (interesting one) new “20 m resolution high orbit SAR sat” to launch this year - it says it will bring “all-time, all-weather, high revisit frequency, wide area” surveys - geostationary radar sat anyone!? @stromgade
* Huanjing 2F = 2nd 5 m S-SAR sat to launch this year
* More commercial constellation launches, e.g. 7 sats for CASC’s own SuperView Neo, more for Jilin-1’s EO sats, Geely Group’s own LEO comsats for car navigation, CentiSpace’s BDS navsat augmentation LEO sats etc.
* More cooperative science missions, e.g. MUST-1A magnetosphere research sat from Macau University of Science and Technology (MUST)
(note the Xuntian space telescope is NOT mentioned)
* 1 new rocket debut in the Long March 6C, which apparently is = “LM-6A without SRBs”.
Excerpt of the “Blue Book” comes from here: m.weibo.cn
Meanwhile on the private front…wait a moment, @relativityspace doesn’t seems to be ready yet, and if this turns out to be a quick fix…
…what in the freaking ghost of Starship SN10 is this!?
Told you that the Chinese might be the biggest fans of @elonmusk - this press release explicitly states this firing test “targets reaching the international state-of-the-art technologies in low cost reusable LVs, represented by SpaceX Starship”. Talk about rocket love letters…
@elonmusk These official figures, BTW, shows that a really large number of Chinese launches were small sat dedicated launches. The total mass is "only" = 12 @SpaceX Starlink launches (34 flew last year!), and that's already including ~88 t of hardware to the CSS!
Like this one LM-11, BTW, during the "pop" cold-start phase:
Well then, the most reasonable name for this rocket has finally been taken.
I guess the overlapping with some pie-in-the-sky Chairman Mao era spaceflight plans really makes this official naming a bit longer to be official than usual.
Speaking of Chairman Mao plans, I would not be surprised if the PRC revives this name for the next generation Chinese crew spacecraft (the name itself is apt and very much used by both the US and USSR)
en.wikipedia.org
"Flying a Starship without it being a Starship" LMAO 🤣
I still don't know how this company w/ rocket illustrations looking like straight from @KerbalSpaceP seems to be making real progress to launch, perhaps even this year.
Also looking at their future plans...F9, FH and F9 with SRBs. Uh, um, well, okay...
(note that their Gravitation-1 - a 3.5 stage design using all-solid-rocket-motors - is a freaking 6.5 t LEO/4.2 t 500 km SSO rocket, in the same range as @northropgrumman Antares! Imagine any current US small launcher LSPs jumping straight to the "Athena III" & you got the idea.)
Good reference graphics to the CSS modules:
The handles really shows this telescope is designed for astronaut servicing - quite a throw back to @HubbleTelescope.
@HubbleTelescope It looks like construction of the new "commercial launch site" at Wenchang is in full swing, w/ "LCC-1" a new LM-8 pad for commercial launches (here the rocket will be processed horizontally a la F9/H) & "LCC-2" a small multi-user pad.
m.weibo.cn
(note also "Building 503" - this might be the future VIF for the newly-christened Long March 10 for cis-lunar missions)
Ooooh, this is BIG. SpaceTY is IIRC one of the biggest Chinese commercial Earth observation satellite constellation operators & builders, they IIRC have participated w/ booths in multiple years of International Astronautical Congress.
It seems data involved comes from Haisi-1 & Chaohu-1, 2 small C-Band radar sats launched on the 1st 2 LM-8 launches respectively.
It’s possible SpaceTY didn’t check clearly who’s buying those data, but failing to prevent such an anti-humanity mercenary from buying data IS gross.
That's fairly quick, probably in the same range as SpaceX building Starship pads:
Roger Beijing, far away relative of Roger Houston (?)
Hmm...this ain't the short one, but a long fairing for the LM-5 series...hmm...
"Chinese staged-combustion Merlin" w/ Merlin's production rate wen?
This is…quick.
Not sure if this is flight hardware though.
LM-5 in Ariane 5 or 6’s dual GEO comsat launch configuration on the right:
Interior space:
Wen install?
I suspect that there will be a day when CSS EVAs stop be covered by Chinese media live because I can't see general public interest to support that after a few more missions.
Told you all that tracking activities happening on the CSS may well be a futile exercise.
Will it really happen right now I wonder…?
LMAO, it’s not like there are 10 cm resolution spy cameras outside the CSS… (/s?)
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So according to this m.weibo.cn the EVA ended at 16:16 UTC with Fei Junlong & Zhang Lu installing an external thermal control system pump outside Mengtian module.
Suits codes:
Maybe it's for things that must not be named here? IIRC similar pumps were installed on the other 2 modules on EVAs before so this shouldn't be particularly challenging.
Haha this exercise could be fun.
Apparently CCTV mentioned that Fei Junlong exited the Wentian module at 09:10 UTC, per this: m.weibo.cn
@planet4589
In other news, some footage of experiments being transferred to the outside of CSS via Mengtian module’s experiment airlock:
(I think there’s a list of what was transferred, will post later)
????????????
That quick?
I…don’t…understand…
(refer to this thread and below for why I’m completely perplexed)
It’s always interesting to note that the Chinese have a very extensive fleet (commercial or military) of small sats, many times < 1t on a single launch, so they have extensive usage of small sat launchers.
In fact Mengtian, TZ-5 & SZ-15 alone consists 60+% of this reported mass!
Imagine trying to dig up plans of various US start-ups’ LEO comms/EO sat constellations & x 10 in search difficulty, that’s how hard it is to dig up the Chinese ones.
Many do provide financial statements but they are tough to find, even if you know Chinese stock market lingo.
At least CSS operations should be relatively clear as things settle down with CSS now fully operational.
That would be a most anti-climic introduction to orbit if this really happens, but I doubt it is ready. Anyway as I noted earlier today even the “launch” - as determined by a single NOTAM - doesn’t seems to be for tomorrow as the notice is valid Feb. 16-19 w/ a 8 hours window.
So, hmm! They really bought an existing engine!
en.wikipedia.org
Keep in mind that this YF-102 is a pretty uncommon RP-1/LOX *expander bleed* cycle engine, the closest ones in recent use are @MHI_GroupJP’s LE-5 series (S2 engine for H-II series and - from tomorrow - H3), the new LE-9 for H3 S1 & @blueorigin’s BE-3U for New Glenn S2.
As it turns out, the air space closure that was projected to be for a Jiuquan originating orbit launch over the past few days almost certainly didn't happen (the 4 days window closes in 2 hours).
But the Chinese are well back at work with 2 launches finally popping up this week!
One of these is a GTO bound one from Xichang on February 23, ~11:55 UTC.
It's almost certainly LM-3B w/ ChinaSat 26, a new Chinese Ka-band high throughput (HTS) comsat covering the whole of China, Eastern Asia and down to Australia.
The other one is still giving me headaches though, a SSO bound from Jiuquan on February 24 ~04:10 UTC. It uses the exact same drop zone as a LM-2C launch last year for CASC's own SuperView Neo EO sat constellation, so it's either new members for it, or for another company's.
Meanwhile down in Nansha port near Guangzhou, remember that half-state-owned ambitious company CAS Space? Well their 2nd ZK-1A (or PR-1 whatever) rocket is in production & currently planned for launch in May. They also claim they have capability to build 30 of them/year (cough?).
Unpressurised cargo version of Tianzhou has been proposed:
This is 200% true. After all, as they themselves says, there is only one “main rhythm” in PRC.
Well here comes another one…
2 LEO Chinese weather satellites are planned for launch this year. FY-3G, a non-polar LEO dedicated precipitation measurement satellite, will launch in April, while the regular FY-3F will launch in August to replace FY-3C in the "morning" polar orbit.
finance.sina.cn
After a month long lull in major activities, the Chinese are back to things in orbit with this launch coming at around 30 minutes’ time (T-0 apparently 11:49 UTC).
Liftoff confirmed - here’s the rocket before launch and as seen from Xichang city center:
CASC has confirmed launch success.
m.weibo.cn
A video:
Boosters Galore:

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