India has learned how to outplay China's diplomats
๐ฎ๐ณ and ๐จ๐ณ compete over:
-Disputed boundary and Line of Actual Control
-Influence in S. Asia
-Terrorism & ๐ต๐ฐ
-Indo-Pacific
3 diplomatic duels over 25 yrs show how ๐ฎ๐ณ can outplay ๐จ๐ณ๐(1/18)
(From @VGokhale59's "The Long Game")
๐ฎ๐ณ and ๐จ๐ณ compete over:
-Disputed boundary and Line of Actual Control
-Influence in S. Asia
-Terrorism & ๐ต๐ฐ
-Indo-Pacific
3 diplomatic duels over 25 yrs show how ๐ฎ๐ณ can outplay ๐จ๐ณ๐(1/18)
(From @VGokhale59's "The Long Game")
(2/18)
๐จ๐ณ has some key negotiating tactics
1. Win negotiations before they begin (do your homework)
2. Use silence (buy time & delay)
3. Let someone else do the fighting (hide behind others & avoid unpopular stands)
4. Use "no" (frustrate opponents into compromise)
๐จ๐ณ has some key negotiating tactics
1. Win negotiations before they begin (do your homework)
2. Use silence (buy time & delay)
3. Let someone else do the fighting (hide behind others & avoid unpopular stands)
4. Use "no" (frustrate opponents into compromise)
(3/18)
5. It ain't over till it's over (Delay defeat & extract compromises
6. Play your opponent (use flattery, anger, theatrics to achieve goals)
I've covered ๐จ๐ณ's tactics fully in this thread๐
5. It ain't over till it's over (Delay defeat & extract compromises
6. Play your opponent (use flattery, anger, theatrics to achieve goals)
I've covered ๐จ๐ณ's tactics fully in this thread๐
(4/18)
The game is up though
๐ฎ๐ณ has seen through ๐จ๐ณ's tactics
Three duels between ๐ฎ๐ณ&๐จ๐ณ demonstrate this:
1. ๐ฎ๐ณ's quest to end sanctions post Pokhran (1998)
2. ๐ฎ๐ณ's push to get waiver from Nuclear Suppliers Group (2008)
3. Listing Masood Azhar of JeM as a terrorist (2019)
The game is up though
๐ฎ๐ณ has seen through ๐จ๐ณ's tactics
Three duels between ๐ฎ๐ณ&๐จ๐ณ demonstrate this:
1. ๐ฎ๐ณ's quest to end sanctions post Pokhran (1998)
2. ๐ฎ๐ณ's push to get waiver from Nuclear Suppliers Group (2008)
3. Listing Masood Azhar of JeM as a terrorist (2019)
(5/18)
Negotiation 1: Pokhran 1998
After ๐ฎ๐ณ declared itself a nuclear weapons state w. Pokhran tests,๐จ๐ณ goal was:
- Cramp ๐ฎ๐ณ's nuclear development
- Align w. ๐บ๐ธ & West to punish & isolate ๐ฎ๐ณ for weapons test
- Establish ๐จ๐ณ's reputation as "responsible" state
Negotiation 1: Pokhran 1998
After ๐ฎ๐ณ declared itself a nuclear weapons state w. Pokhran tests,๐จ๐ณ goal was:
- Cramp ๐ฎ๐ณ's nuclear development
- Align w. ๐บ๐ธ & West to punish & isolate ๐ฎ๐ณ for weapons test
- Establish ๐จ๐ณ's reputation as "responsible" state
(6/18)
๐จ๐ณ used Tactic 3 (Let others do the fighting)
Hid behind ๐บ๐ธ & UNSC to:
- Slap econ sanctions on ๐ฎ๐ณ
- Use Permanent 5 members to push restrictions on ๐ฎ๐ณ's nuclear program
- Push dialogue on Kashmir w. ๐ต๐ฐ
- Hold Summit on S. Asia with ๐บ๐ธ to boost rep. as "responsible" pwr
๐จ๐ณ used Tactic 3 (Let others do the fighting)
Hid behind ๐บ๐ธ & UNSC to:
- Slap econ sanctions on ๐ฎ๐ณ
- Use Permanent 5 members to push restrictions on ๐ฎ๐ณ's nuclear program
- Push dialogue on Kashmir w. ๐ต๐ฐ
- Hold Summit on S. Asia with ๐บ๐ธ to boost rep. as "responsible" pwr
(7/18)
๐ฎ๐ณ pushed back
-Lobbied ๐บ๐ธ govt. through Talbott-Singh talks to gain acceptance of nuclear program
-Once ๐บ๐ธ was on board, reached out to UK, France & Japan to break coalition against ๐ฎ๐ณ
- Once coalition was broken, ๐ฎ๐ณ knew ๐จ๐ณ would have to accept nukes on ๐ฎ๐ณ's terms
๐ฎ๐ณ pushed back
-Lobbied ๐บ๐ธ govt. through Talbott-Singh talks to gain acceptance of nuclear program
-Once ๐บ๐ธ was on board, reached out to UK, France & Japan to break coalition against ๐ฎ๐ณ
- Once coalition was broken, ๐ฎ๐ณ knew ๐จ๐ณ would have to accept nukes on ๐ฎ๐ณ's terms
(8/18)
Gokhale: The trick lies in separating ๐จ๐ณ from the pack, 'isolating' them & keeping a steady course even if ๐จ๐ณuses..intimidation..to put pressure. If ๐จ๐ณ's self interest is exposed, will look for way out
๐ฎ๐ณ used this to restore normal ties with ๐จ๐ณ within a year of Pokhran
Gokhale: The trick lies in separating ๐จ๐ณ from the pack, 'isolating' them & keeping a steady course even if ๐จ๐ณuses..intimidation..to put pressure. If ๐จ๐ณ's self interest is exposed, will look for way out
๐ฎ๐ณ used this to restore normal ties with ๐จ๐ณ within a year of Pokhran
(9/18)
Negotiation 2: ๐ฎ๐ณ๐จ๐ณ duel over NSG waiver
- After news of ๐ฎ๐ณ๐บ๐ธ nuclear deal broke, ๐จ๐ณ tried to stop ๐ฎ๐ณ from getting NSG waiver through:
Tactic 2 (Use silence) - ๐จ๐ณ masked its opposition to waiver for ๐ฎ๐ณ by making vague statements. Did not want to hurt ties w. ๐ฎ๐ณ & ๐บ๐ธ
Negotiation 2: ๐ฎ๐ณ๐จ๐ณ duel over NSG waiver
- After news of ๐ฎ๐ณ๐บ๐ธ nuclear deal broke, ๐จ๐ณ tried to stop ๐ฎ๐ณ from getting NSG waiver through:
Tactic 2 (Use silence) - ๐จ๐ณ masked its opposition to waiver for ๐ฎ๐ณ by making vague statements. Did not want to hurt ties w. ๐ฎ๐ณ & ๐บ๐ธ
(10/18)
Tactic 3 (Let others fight): Lobbied to block ๐ฎ๐ณ
Gokhale: ๐จ๐ณ worked on small E'pean states to stoke fears about๐บ๐ธ intentions on non-proliferation..hoped that๐บ๐ธ camp followers to revolt against ๐ฎ๐ณ๐บ๐ธ deal. ๐จ๐ณ raised fears of nuclear use by irresponsible ctries.
Tactic 3 (Let others fight): Lobbied to block ๐ฎ๐ณ
Gokhale: ๐จ๐ณ worked on small E'pean states to stoke fears about๐บ๐ธ intentions on non-proliferation..hoped that๐บ๐ธ camp followers to revolt against ๐ฎ๐ณ๐บ๐ธ deal. ๐จ๐ณ raised fears of nuclear use by irresponsible ctries.
(11/18)
๐ฎ๐ณ&๐บ๐ธ fought back by:
-Reducing concern among neutral ctries by not officially recognising ๐ฎ๐ณ as nuclear state
-Accomodating amendments by NSG
๐ฎ๐ณ&๐บ๐ธ ensured ๐จ๐ณ was alone
๐จ๐ณ Amb in ๐ฎ๐ณ was told that if ๐จ๐ณ didnโt shift position, ๐ฎ๐ณ๐จ๐ณ ties would be affected
๐จ๐ณ folded
๐ฎ๐ณ&๐บ๐ธ fought back by:
-Reducing concern among neutral ctries by not officially recognising ๐ฎ๐ณ as nuclear state
-Accomodating amendments by NSG
๐ฎ๐ณ&๐บ๐ธ ensured ๐จ๐ณ was alone
๐จ๐ณ Amb in ๐ฎ๐ณ was told that if ๐จ๐ณ didnโt shift position, ๐ฎ๐ณ๐จ๐ณ ties would be affected
๐จ๐ณ folded
(12/18)
Negotiation 3: UNSC Listing of Masood Azhar
๐ฎ๐ณ waged a decade long diplomatic battle with ๐จ๐ณ to list Azhar, founder of Jaish-e-Mohammed
Despite ample evidence of Azhar's terror links, ๐จ๐ณ blocked ๐ฎ๐ณ efforts to list him b'cuz of relationship w.๐ต๐ฐ
Negotiation 3: UNSC Listing of Masood Azhar
๐ฎ๐ณ waged a decade long diplomatic battle with ๐จ๐ณ to list Azhar, founder of Jaish-e-Mohammed
Despite ample evidence of Azhar's terror links, ๐จ๐ณ blocked ๐ฎ๐ณ efforts to list him b'cuz of relationship w.๐ต๐ฐ
(13/18)
-Initially, ๐จ๐ณ used Tactic 2 (Silence) to delay Azhar's listing, asked for more time to consider listing
-๐จ๐ณ then used Tactic 4 (Use "no"). Repeated its position asking for concrete proof & more discussion for a decade hoping ๐ฎ๐ณ would give up
-Initially, ๐จ๐ณ used Tactic 2 (Silence) to delay Azhar's listing, asked for more time to consider listing
-๐จ๐ณ then used Tactic 4 (Use "no"). Repeated its position asking for concrete proof & more discussion for a decade hoping ๐ฎ๐ณ would give up
(14/18)
- Once ๐จ๐ณ realised it was alone in opposing Azhar listing, used Tactic 5 (It ain't over till it's over)
Gokhale reveals that ๐จ๐ณ offered to reconsider its block if ๐ฎ๐ณ agreed not to list more๐ต๐ฐ based terrorists
Even though ๐จ๐ณ knew it had lost, tried to get concessions
- Once ๐จ๐ณ realised it was alone in opposing Azhar listing, used Tactic 5 (It ain't over till it's over)
Gokhale reveals that ๐จ๐ณ offered to reconsider its block if ๐ฎ๐ณ agreed not to list more๐ต๐ฐ based terrorists
Even though ๐จ๐ณ knew it had lost, tried to get concessions
(15/18)
๐ฎ๐ณ's tactics in this duel were the most effective
- Isolated ๐จ๐ณ in UNSC by convincing other ctries to list Azhar
- Repeatedly raised Azhar issue w/o giving up over a decade
-Refused to accept ๐จ๐ณ's offer of Azhar listing in exchange for no more ๐ต๐ฐ terrorists
๐ฎ๐ณ's tactics in this duel were the most effective
- Isolated ๐จ๐ณ in UNSC by convincing other ctries to list Azhar
- Repeatedly raised Azhar issue w/o giving up over a decade
-Refused to accept ๐จ๐ณ's offer of Azhar listing in exchange for no more ๐ต๐ฐ terrorists
(16/18)
-๐ฎ๐ณ exploited ๐จ๐ณ's weakness: desire to maintain image & be seen as responsible pwr
By blocking listing,๐จ๐ณ risked image by fighting alone for a terrorist. ๐ฎ๐ณ correctly guessed that image cost would be too high for ๐จ๐ณ
๐ฎ๐ณ threatened to call๐จ๐ณ out publicly
-๐ฎ๐ณ exploited ๐จ๐ณ's weakness: desire to maintain image & be seen as responsible pwr
By blocking listing,๐จ๐ณ risked image by fighting alone for a terrorist. ๐ฎ๐ณ correctly guessed that image cost would be too high for ๐จ๐ณ
๐ฎ๐ณ threatened to call๐จ๐ณ out publicly
(17/18)
Great example:
๐ฎ๐ณ&๐บ๐ธ planned UNSC vote on Azhar listing. ๐จ๐ณ threatened to use veto
However, ๐ฎ๐ณ&๐บ๐ธ called ๐จ๐ณ's bluff & knew that ๐จ๐ณ would suffer image damage if it used veto for a terrorist
๐จ๐ณ knew the game was up & gave in. Azhar was listed a terrorist in May 2019
Great example:
๐ฎ๐ณ&๐บ๐ธ planned UNSC vote on Azhar listing. ๐จ๐ณ threatened to use veto
However, ๐ฎ๐ณ&๐บ๐ธ called ๐จ๐ณ's bluff & knew that ๐จ๐ณ would suffer image damage if it used veto for a terrorist
๐จ๐ณ knew the game was up & gave in. Azhar was listed a terrorist in May 2019
(18/18)
I've said it once and I'll say it again
@VGokhale59's "The Long Game" is a must-read if you'd like to understand how ๐จ๐ณ negotiates with ๐ฎ๐ณ
I've said it once and I'll say it again
@VGokhale59's "The Long Game" is a must-read if you'd like to understand how ๐จ๐ณ negotiates with ๐ฎ๐ณ
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