Today, I'm ranking the best (and worst) predictions of 2022.
In the last month, there have been TONS of new 2023 crypto prediction threads, but few have reflected on the accuracy of their 2022 guesses.
So we did it for them.
51 predictions.
25 wrong.
And one winner:
In the last month, there have been TONS of new 2023 crypto prediction threads, but few have reflected on the accuracy of their 2022 guesses.
So we did it for them.
51 predictions.
25 wrong.
And one winner:
First: our methodology is pretty unscientific, as everyone made different predictions in different mediums, some more verifiable than others...
We did the best we could, but keep in mind that it's easier to make broad predictions than specific ones.
Nonetheless:
We did the best we could, but keep in mind that it's easier to make broad predictions than specific ones.
Nonetheless:
1. @JasonYanowitz
First up? Yano, founder of @blockworks.
I’ve chatted with Jason before and he’s a great guy with a successful (still hiring) crypto media co.
The bad news? His 2022 predictions didn’t pan out.
His bullishness made it difficult for his guesses to come true:
First up? Yano, founder of @blockworks.
I’ve chatted with Jason before and he’s a great guy with a successful (still hiring) crypto media co.
The bad news? His 2022 predictions didn’t pan out.
His bullishness made it difficult for his guesses to come true:
2. @hosseeb
Haseeb Qureshi of Dragonfly is one of my favorite thinkers in the space, but his predictions were a little below average.
Synthetic assets get half-credit: they began to achieve adoption with Mirror Protocol, but Luna’s collapse damped their ambitions.
Haseeb Qureshi of Dragonfly is one of my favorite thinkers in the space, but his predictions were a little below average.
Synthetic assets get half-credit: they began to achieve adoption with Mirror Protocol, but Luna’s collapse damped their ambitions.
Nonetheless, @hosseeb raised $650m for his new venture fund this year, so I think he gets stuff right enough, often enough, to do pretty well for himself.
3. @BanklessHQ
My friends at Bankless came in swinging with very specific predictions across the industry.
But they were a bit bullish, with their market cap guesses coming in a little too hot--props for guessing.
But for ETH maxis, they NAILED their BTC predictions.
My friends at Bankless came in swinging with very specific predictions across the industry.
But they were a bit bullish, with their market cap guesses coming in a little too hot--props for guessing.
But for ETH maxis, they NAILED their BTC predictions.
4. @stablekwon
Do Kwon just about single-handledly destroyed the crypto market, but he was above average as far as predictions went.
Most of his success can probably be attributed to his familiarity with the cross-chain and stablecoin space.
Do Kwon just about single-handledly destroyed the crypto market, but he was above average as far as predictions went.
Most of his success can probably be attributed to his familiarity with the cross-chain and stablecoin space.
5. @twobitidiot
Messari’s yearly theses report is a must-read, and Ryan Selkis, their CEO, makes it free for everyone.
As far as the thematic elements last year, he nailed them, but his bullishness betrayed him.
His biggest miscalculation was around institutional interest.
Messari’s yearly theses report is a must-read, and Ryan Selkis, their CEO, makes it free for everyone.
As far as the thematic elements last year, he nailed them, but his bullishness betrayed him.
His biggest miscalculation was around institutional interest.
6. @JackNiewold (me)
My predictions were pretty average, with some popular opinions being wrong, and some unpopular ones being right.
I was right on the L2 narrative but L2s far outshined their Alternative Layer One brethren.
My predictions were pretty average, with some popular opinions being wrong, and some unpopular ones being right.
I was right on the L2 narrative but L2s far outshined their Alternative Layer One brethren.
7. @lawmaster
Larry Cermak had some strong predictions given their specificity, but guessed that we'd have a continued bull market.
He got the Merge right, and shot down various ‘flippenings’, but missed on some regulatory stuff and L2 specifics.
Larry Cermak had some strong predictions given their specificity, but guessed that we'd have a continued bull market.
He got the Merge right, and shot down various ‘flippenings’, but missed on some regulatory stuff and L2 specifics.
8. @GiganticRebirth
I’m a GCR stan, and he’s made some powerful predictions in 2022–nearly all of them right. For his global 2022 predictions, he more-or-less nailed them, with just a single prediction on wallet verification missing the mark.
GCR remains unfadeable.
I’m a GCR stan, and he’s made some powerful predictions in 2022–nearly all of them right. For his global 2022 predictions, he more-or-less nailed them, with just a single prediction on wallet verification missing the mark.
GCR remains unfadeable.
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THE LESSONS:
Of all the 51 predictions we categorized today, 25 were wrong.
I think that’s about right on these mid-term predictions, with longer time frames/broader predictions being easier to get right.
That’s an advantage for long-term, well diversified crypto investors.
Of all the 51 predictions we categorized today, 25 were wrong.
I think that’s about right on these mid-term predictions, with longer time frames/broader predictions being easier to get right.
That’s an advantage for long-term, well diversified crypto investors.
Perhaps this should humble us all, and remind us that it is not the predictions themselves that make us money, but how we use them:
• Risk management
• Diversification
• Power-law investing
• Patience
All can benefit us even if we get granular/specific predictions wrong.
• Risk management
• Diversification
• Power-law investing
• Patience
All can benefit us even if we get granular/specific predictions wrong.
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