Budget is 3 weeks and BNF is stucked in a range of 2000 points from 41700-43700.
Lets analyse few charts and basic setup. Also lets see if we can find a good RR trade here.
Lets analyse few charts and basic setup. Also lets see if we can find a good RR trade here.
First we start with BNF Weekly & Daily chart. BNF made low of 41657 on 19/12 weekly, then low of 41640 on 26/12 weekly and now low of 42052 on 2nd Jan. While closing in these 3 weeks were 41735/43165/42358.
So on downside my FINAL STOP LOSS FOR ANY BULLISH BIAS WILL BE 41600.
So on downside my FINAL STOP LOSS FOR ANY BULLISH BIAS WILL BE 41600.
Now lets see the daily chart . On daily chart I will wait for close above 42800 to create bullish position.
See before the Budget we can expect this wild range of 2000 points to keep swinging on either direction. And this will always give us a false sense of breakdown & breakout
See before the Budget we can expect this wild range of 2000 points to keep swinging on either direction. And this will always give us a false sense of breakdown & breakout
As we are expecting the BNF to trade between 41700-43700 zone, so lets watch monthly straddle of 41500/44000/42500.
You will notice here that while 44000 straddle is almost at monthly high, the other two straddles are downward slopping. Our assumption is that market will stay
You will notice here that while 44000 straddle is almost at monthly high, the other two straddles are downward slopping. Our assumption is that market will stay
in 2000 points range. Now we are at the lowest point of range almost. Hence if 44000 straddle makes a new high of 2000 on hourly basis, then we can see a major downmove in market. So this is our master straddle to gauge the move on downside.
The total combined premium of these 3 straddle as of now is
41500 - 1158+285 = 1445
42500 - 540+670 = 1210
44000 - 97+1707 = 1800
Total = 4450 approx
You can see that this 3 straddle chart is downward slopping and can be shorted with a Stop loss of 4850 on combined premium.
41500 - 1158+285 = 1445
42500 - 540+670 = 1210
44000 - 97+1707 = 1800
Total = 4450 approx
You can see that this 3 straddle chart is downward slopping and can be shorted with a Stop loss of 4850 on combined premium.
As of today there is GAS of 580 points in 41500 straddle, 1050 points in 42500 straddle and 160 points in 44000 straddle. So total Gas is 1800 points approx. So with a 400 points SL, you can tgt approx 1200 points in this straddle in next 15 trading days.
This is valid only for 3 straddle done together. For directional player, new high in 44000 straddle will be a first signal of upcoming downward move.
Now lets see the DOW and Nasdaq chart also, looks like they are also giving a breakout on upside with Friday low as sl for view.
Now lets see the DOW and Nasdaq chart also, looks like they are also giving a breakout on upside with Friday low as sl for view.
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