I've noticed a certain rhetorical trick that's common in tech spaces that I call "borrowing evidence from the future".
It's where you call someone out for not having any evidence for their claims and they counter by saying soon there will be overwhelming evidence for their side.
It's where you call someone out for not having any evidence for their claims and they counter by saying soon there will be overwhelming evidence for their side.
So much evidence, in fact, that you'll be proven a complete and utter fool for even questioning them.
This move takes advantage of your fear of shame and embarrassment to essentially bully you into not challenging them.
This move takes advantage of your fear of shame and embarrassment to essentially bully you into not challenging them.
On top of that, if the person pulling this trick doesn't have much of a sense of shame themselves, it's like a rhetorical superpower.
They can bulldoze through any argument by inventing near infinite amounts of potential evidence.
They can bulldoze through any argument by inventing near infinite amounts of potential evidence.
Promising a short timeline for delivery of the evidence seems to be key to pulling this trick off.
People interpret the combination of the person being willing to stake their entire reputation on the outcome and the short timeframe as making their claims seem more plausible.
People interpret the combination of the person being willing to stake their entire reputation on the outcome and the short timeframe as making their claims seem more plausible.
You come off as extremely uncharitable if you aren't willing to wait just a few short weeks to see their evidence.
In a few months when the evidence fails to materialize, they can just repeat the trick.
In a few months when the evidence fails to materialize, they can just repeat the trick.
If you call them out as having BSed about this before, it comes off as a personal attack and unbecoming of a scientific discussion.
In this way, they can defer having any real evidence for years or even decades.
In this way, they can defer having any real evidence for years or even decades.
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