THE SHORT BEAR
THE SHORT BEAR

@TheShortBear

4 Tweets Mar 23, 2023
The Consumer Price Index tracks housing inflation through a large panel of housing units that are surveyed every six months.
The turnover creates a big divergence between old and actual data.
In short, we are lagging behind drastically.
Alternative data sources such as:
Zillow new lease index
Apartmentlist new lease index
Show us a live picture of the true inflation new tenants are facing.
The remains rental inflation, however when the lagged data finally shows up, inflation is likely to drop like a stone.
When excluding the lagged rental data, the CPI has already normalized.
It is at 2.7% Y/Y
The point here is not picking an inflation datapoint and erasing it.
It is that lagged data will come around and given the rest dropped already, the CPI prints could come in lower quickly.
Just remember the Wells Fargo 2.2% call for the end of the year.

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