🧵The Chinese Nightmare🧵
1/
There are still conservatives, and some NYT progressives who fear/dream that China's authoritarianism is going to outcompete the west economically and bring in a century of Centralized control
This isn't going to happen. China is all but collapsing
1/
There are still conservatives, and some NYT progressives who fear/dream that China's authoritarianism is going to outcompete the west economically and bring in a century of Centralized control
This isn't going to happen. China is all but collapsing
2/
Thanks to the one child policy China has amongst the worst demographics of any country in the world.
According to official numbers China's population is on track to decline from 1.4 billion to 700 million by century's end, Halving...
Thanks to the one child policy China has amongst the worst demographics of any country in the world.
According to official numbers China's population is on track to decline from 1.4 billion to 700 million by century's end, Halving...
3/
But experts who track leaks and other metrics think it is even worse than the CCP's official numbers suggest. They suspect Chinese population growth is already negative and could drop below 1 billion as early as 2050.
But experts who track leaks and other metrics think it is even worse than the CCP's official numbers suggest. They suspect Chinese population growth is already negative and could drop below 1 billion as early as 2050.
4/
Economists and the better China watchers have know this was coming, and known China cannot sustain its retired population with so few workers and so little wealth
So there's been a question posed since 2008: Will China get old before it gets rich?
We now know the answer
Economists and the better China watchers have know this was coming, and known China cannot sustain its retired population with so few workers and so little wealth
So there's been a question posed since 2008: Will China get old before it gets rich?
We now know the answer
5/
Baring some insane military play, involving not just Taiwan, but old school imperial conquest of large chunks of south-east Asia there's no real way for China to get around this apocalyptic societal problem... And even that probably wouldn't be enough
Baring some insane military play, involving not just Taiwan, but old school imperial conquest of large chunks of south-east Asia there's no real way for China to get around this apocalyptic societal problem... And even that probably wouldn't be enough
6/
30+% of China's economy is tied up producing one good: Real Estate.
This should be confusing.
How can an economy with a shrinking population be that dependent on real estate?
Supply & demand. Demand is shrinking so prices must be falling
LOL... oh you sweet summer child
30+% of China's economy is tied up producing one good: Real Estate.
This should be confusing.
How can an economy with a shrinking population be that dependent on real estate?
Supply & demand. Demand is shrinking so prices must be falling
LOL... oh you sweet summer child
7/
We've all seen the photos of China's ghost cities, hundreds of cities with thousands of massive housing complexes each, almost all sitting empty.
People assume the CCP is paying to build these as a make work scheme, but the truth is vastly, VASTLY Darker.
They're all sold.
We've all seen the photos of China's ghost cities, hundreds of cities with thousands of massive housing complexes each, almost all sitting empty.
People assume the CCP is paying to build these as a make work scheme, but the truth is vastly, VASTLY Darker.
They're all sold.
8/
The Chinese have near the highest savings rate in the world, yet they don't trust the Stock or Bond market (understandably since there's no transparency)
So all their savings they pour into real estate.
The Chinese have near the highest savings rate in the world, yet they don't trust the Stock or Bond market (understandably since there's no transparency)
So all their savings they pour into real estate.
9/
As a result China has the most expensive real estate in the world, by income
Despite a GDP of 10k per person (USD) condos in China average 200k in most cities and creep towards the million mark in others.
Parents mortgage their homes to help make their kids down-payment
As a result China has the most expensive real estate in the world, by income
Despite a GDP of 10k per person (USD) condos in China average 200k in most cities and creep towards the million mark in others.
Parents mortgage their homes to help make their kids down-payment
10/
Many of the second and third condos Chinese investors buy never get finished
Indeed since living in a Condo throws off the Feng Shui for future inhabits leaving it unfinished actually improves its speculative value, or so they claim
It certainly hasn't stopped purchases
Many of the second and third condos Chinese investors buy never get finished
Indeed since living in a Condo throws off the Feng Shui for future inhabits leaving it unfinished actually improves its speculative value, or so they claim
It certainly hasn't stopped purchases
11/
If this sounds like the worst housing bubble ever, it is. The raw force of the demographic decline will inevitably destroy this bubble.
EverGrande was a huge scandal , but now citizens are striking and refusing to pay mortgages on condos that stopped mid build
If this sounds like the worst housing bubble ever, it is. The raw force of the demographic decline will inevitably destroy this bubble.
EverGrande was a huge scandal , but now citizens are striking and refusing to pay mortgages on condos that stopped mid build
12/
And this is all without mentioning the Zero COVID policy and the dystopian lockdowns which have only just ended.
China commitment to Zero COVID and grandstanding off the "success" of their early lockdowns, has left Xi and the Party trapped.
And this is all without mentioning the Zero COVID policy and the dystopian lockdowns which have only just ended.
China commitment to Zero COVID and grandstanding off the "success" of their early lockdowns, has left Xi and the Party trapped.
13/
The Chinese shot grants vastly less immunity than the western ones...(saying something)
While the Chinese Lockdowns "Worked" vastly better than western ones.
also China might be vastly more vulnerable due to poor air quality and the age of their population
The Chinese shot grants vastly less immunity than the western ones...(saying something)
While the Chinese Lockdowns "Worked" vastly better than western ones.
also China might be vastly more vulnerable due to poor air quality and the age of their population
14/
Now that the CCP has finally pivoted away from lockdowns there are hundreds of millions of aging Chinese citizens about to get sick for the first time that have near zero immunity and they're going to be testing for cancer and other disease they ignored during lockdown
Now that the CCP has finally pivoted away from lockdowns there are hundreds of millions of aging Chinese citizens about to get sick for the first time that have near zero immunity and they're going to be testing for cancer and other disease they ignored during lockdown
15/
China's healthcare was on edge before the pandemic and we've already seen how even western healthcare degraded in the past few years from a mix of the pandemic and bad policy (Like firing unvaxed workers during a labour crunch when the vax doesn't restrict transmission)
China's healthcare was on edge before the pandemic and we've already seen how even western healthcare degraded in the past few years from a mix of the pandemic and bad policy (Like firing unvaxed workers during a labour crunch when the vax doesn't restrict transmission)
16/
Ending lockdowns is 100% necessary, but controversial everywhere.
Think of the huge culture wars western countries had over their implementation and end... the resentments at their enforcement, the emotional commitments of those who supported them...
Ending lockdowns is 100% necessary, but controversial everywhere.
Think of the huge culture wars western countries had over their implementation and end... the resentments at their enforcement, the emotional commitments of those who supported them...
17/
And now imagine ending them all at once, without victory, after sacrificing so much more than even the most authoritarian western country...
Only for the deaths to then start.
And now imagine ending them all at once, without victory, after sacrificing so much more than even the most authoritarian western country...
Only for the deaths to then start.
18/
Will the CCP be able to save face?
All this will be happening as the economy continue to crash that WILL cause the largest housing crash in human history, and that WILL wipe out the collective savings of the entire country right as 240mil Chinese boomers retire
Will the CCP be able to save face?
All this will be happening as the economy continue to crash that WILL cause the largest housing crash in human history, and that WILL wipe out the collective savings of the entire country right as 240mil Chinese boomers retire
19/
China doesn't have a meaningful social security system. They can't afford it
Horrible poverty exists near those shiny towers
Third world conditions are everywhere and that's what people will be reduced back to
The world once manufactured in the rust belt too
China doesn't have a meaningful social security system. They can't afford it
Horrible poverty exists near those shiny towers
Third world conditions are everywhere and that's what people will be reduced back to
The world once manufactured in the rust belt too
20/
You can already find stories about homeless encampments and Mongolian nomads moving into the carcasses of these unfinished ghost cities...
Soon millions living off well under 10k a year will wonder that their unfinished apartments once cost hundreds of thousands.
You can already find stories about homeless encampments and Mongolian nomads moving into the carcasses of these unfinished ghost cities...
Soon millions living off well under 10k a year will wonder that their unfinished apartments once cost hundreds of thousands.
P.S.
Also checkout my long take on the Future of Irregular warfare in:
The Dream of the Motorcycle Warlords
open.substack.com
Also checkout my long take on the Future of Irregular warfare in:
The Dream of the Motorcycle Warlords
open.substack.com
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